While traditionally powerful Western economies are treading water at best, beset by crises in banking, housing, and employment, industrial growth and economic development are exploding in China and India. The world's two most populous nations are the biggest reasons for Asia's growing footprint on other global regions. The increasing size and impact of that footprint are especially important in the Middle East, an economic, religious, and geopolitical linchpin. The East Moves West details the growing interdependence of the Middle East and Asia and projects the likely ramifications of this evolving relationship. It also examines the role of Pakistan, Japan, and South Korea in the region.
 Geoffrey Kemp, a longtime analyst of global security and political economy, compares and contrasts Indian and Chinese involvement in the Middle East. He stresses an embedded historical dimension that gives India substantially more familiarity and interest in the region—India was there first, and it has maintained that head start. Both nations, however, are clearly on the rise and leaving an indelible mark on the Middle East, and that enhanced influence has international ramifications for the United States and throughout the world.
 Does the emergence of these Asian giants—with their increasingly huge need for energy—strengthen the case for cooperative security, particularly in the maritime arena? After all, safe and open sea-lanes remain an essential component of mutually beneficial intercontinental trade, making India and China increasingly dependent on safe passage of oil tankers. Or will we see reversion to more traditional competition and even conflict, given that the major Asian powers themselves have so many unresolved problems and that the future of the U.S. presence in the area is uncertain. Kemp believes the United States will remain the dominant military power in the region but will have to share some security responsibilities with the Asians, especially in the Indian Ocean.

The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia's Growing Presence in the Middle East

Business & Money

Kemp, Geoffrey

Industries

Brookings Institution Press

Reference

Powder Keg in the Middle East: The Struggle for Gulf Security

The Persian Gulf continues to be a region of critical importance to the United States and the industrial world. Its oil and natural gas resources are, if anything, more important today than they were in the 1970s when the energy crisis emerged as a dominant feature of the international landscape. Yet despite the allied victory in Desert Storm, the Gulf remains dangerous because the underlying sources of conflict in the region remain unresolved. Powder Keg in the Middle East adopts a broad mandate for considering future sources of conflict in the Gulf. While military issues and the dynamics of the arms race remain very important in the context of the regional military balance and the dynamics of conflict escalation, the authors argue that the underlying sources of conflict--which drive the arms race--are related to broad-based demographic, technological, cultural, and ideological factors and trends. These embrace issues from water security to religious conflict and population dynamics. Copublished with the American Association for the Advancement of Science

History

Stein, Janice

Middle East

Rl Innactive Titles

Point of No Return: The Deadly Struggle for Middle East Peace

The Arab-Israeli peace process has reached a point of no return. Structural as well as ideological obstacles remain to a comprehensive Middle East peace--including major asymmetries between the parties. The two most critical challenges concern violent opposition in the Muslim world and Israel to the peace process and continuing instability in the Persian Gulf. Until Iraq and Iran are reintegrated into a more stable Gulf security system, their behavior poses a constant threat to the region and undermines the potential benefits of an Arab-Israeli peace. The study reviews the progress made toward peace between 1991 and 1995 and the dramatic setbacks that occurred in 1996. It also assesses the challenges ahead and provides a country-by-country analysis of criticisms of the peace process.

Politics & Social Sciences

Pressman, Jeremy

Sociology

Carnegie Endowment for Intl Peace

This work argues that calculating an equitable military balance between Israel and its Arab neighbours cannot be done unless both sides are prepared to accept the principle of asymmetric reciprocity - where Israel and Arabs agree to make mutual but unequal concessions to achieve peace.

Politics & Government

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

With the breakup of the Soviet Union and the growing links between the Caucasus, Central and South Asia, and the Middle East, a strategic map of the region is emerging with far-reaching implications for the United States and other major powers.
 Geoffrey Kemp and Robert Harkavy argue that increasing demand for Persian Gulf and Caspian Basic energy, especially from the booming Asian economies, ensures that the Middle East will remain a global strategic prize and source of continued rivalry. At the same time, radical changes in conventional military technology and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, along with the specter of megaterrorism, present ominous future possibilities—in relation to both warfare scenarios involving the Arab-Israel, Iran-Iraq, and India-Pakistan conflicts and the potential need for U.S. interventions.
 The authors likewise signal the region's positive potential. The Middle East has the capacity to move toward a more constructive and peaceful future. Intra-regional proposals already exist for joint infrastructure projects, shared oil and gas pipelines, and improved transportation and communication grids linking the region to Europe. These proposals could usher in a new era of prosperity and cooperation.
 A wealth of information is made very accessible through the use of 36 maps detailing the region's history, geography, energy resources, military conflict zones and basing infrastructure, as well as roads and rail and water routes.

Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East

Harkavy, Robert E.

Carnegie Endowment for Int'l Peace

With the breakup of the Soviet Union and the growing links between the Caucasus, Central and South Asia, and the Middle East, a strategic map of the region is emerging with far-reaching implications for the United States and other major powers. Geoffrey Kemp and Robert Harkavy argue that increasing demand for Persian Gulf and Caspian Basic energy, especially from the booming Asian economies, ensures that the Middle East will remain a global strategic prize and source of continued rivalry. At the same time, radical changes in conventional military technology and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, along with the specter of megaterrorism, present ominous future possibilities—in relation to both warfare scenarios involving the Arab-Israel, Iran-Iraq, and India-Pakistan conflicts and the potential need for U.S. interventions. The authors likewise signal the region's positive potential. The Middle East has the capacity to move toward a more constructive and peaceful future. Intra-regional proposals already exist for joint infrastructure projects, shared oil and gas pipelines, and improved transportation and communication grids linking the region to Europe. These proposals could usher in a new era of prosperity and cooperation. A wealth of information is made very accessible through the use of 36 maps detailing the region's history, geography, energy resources, military conflict zones and basing infrastructure, as well as roads and rail and water routes.

Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

America and Iran remain bitter enemies. Yet because of vital strategic interests in the Persian Gulf, Iran remains too important a country for the United States to ignore. Iran's opposition to the Arab-Israeli peace process, continued support for terrorism and subversion, poor human rights record, and rearmament programs are reasons for heightened U.S. concern. However, despite these problems, fears about Iranian hegemony in the Persian Gulf or Central Asia are exaggerated.Should the United states adopt a more conciliatory or more confrontational policy toward the Islamic regime? This book advocates a centrist policy and argues that the United States must continue to confront Iran on the key issues of concern, and work more closely with European allies or find a common policy toward the Islamic regime. The role of Russia is particularly important even though its strategic differences with the United States have been downplayed by the Clinton administration. Iran faces horrendous domestic problems as oil prices fall, its economy falters, and its leaders openly and vehemently fight with each other; especially about relations with the United States. While an eventual dialogue with the Iranian leadership is in American interests, no concessions should be make to bring this about.

Forever Enemies?: American Policy & the Islamic Republic of Iran

Brookings Inst Pr

The war in the Gulf has highlighted the dangers of the Middle East arms race and raised arms control to the top of the US policy agenda. This book explains the geographic vulnerability of the countries in the region and their dependence on military force for security. This raises a difficult political question since Washington has many friends in the region to whom it has traditionally supplied arms. The author explains that an arms control policy connot be separated from the important goal of establishing regional stability and is a necessary part of any dialogues for peace.

The Control of the Middle East Arms Race

Military

Arms Transfers To The Third World: The Military Buildup In Less Industrial Countries

Engineering & Transportation

Ra'Anan, Uri

Engineering

Westview Press

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