Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up (Complex Adaptive Systems)

A Brookings Institution Press and MIT Press publication How do social structures and group behaviors arise from the interaction of individuals? In this groundbreaking study, Joshua M. Epstein and Robert L. Axtell approach this age-old question with cutting-edge computer simulation techniques. Such fundamental collective behaviors as group formation, cultural transmission, combat, and trade are seen to "emerge" from the interaction of individual agents following simple local rules. In their computer model, Epstein and Axtell begin the development of a "bottom up" social science. Their program, named Sugarscape, simulates the behavior of artificial people (agents) located on a landscape of a generalized resource (sugar). Agents are born onto the Sugarscape with a vision, a metabolism, a speed, and other genetic attributes. Their movement is governed by a simple local rule: "look around as far as you can; find the spot with the most sugar; go there and eat the sugar." Every time an agent moves, it burns sugar at an amount equal to its metabolic rate. Agents die if and when they burn up all their sugar. A remarkable range of social phenomena emerge. For example, when seasons are introduced, migration and hibernation can be observed. Agents are accumulating sugar at all times, so there is always a distribution of wealth. Next, Epstein and Axtell attempt to grow a "proto-history" of civilization. It starts with agents scattered about a twin-peaked landscape; over time, there is self-organization into spatially segregated and culturally distinct "tribes" centered on the peaks of the Sugarscape. Population growth forces each tribe to disperse into the sugar lowlands between the mountains. There, the two tribes interact, engaging in combat and competing for cultural dominance, to produce complex social histories with violent expansionist phases, peaceful periods, and so on. The proto-history combines a number of ingredients, each of which generates insights of its own. One of these ingredients is sexual reproduction. In some runs, the population becomes thin, birth rates fall, and the population can crash. Alternatively, the agents may over-populate their environment, driving it into ecological collapse. When Epstein and Axtell introduce a second resource (spice) to the Sugarscape and allow the agents to trade, an economic market emerges. The introduction of pollution resulting from resource-mining permits the study of economic markets in the presence of environmental factors. This study is part of the 2050 Project, a joint venture of the Santa Fe Institute, the World Resources Institute, and the Brookings Institution. The project is an international effort to identify conditions for a sustainable global system in the middle of the next century and to design policy actions to help achieve such a system.

Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science From the Bottom Up (Complex Adaptive Systems)

Politics & Social Sciences

Epstein, Joshua M.

Axtell, Robert L.

Social Sciences

Brookings Institution Press

Financial Regulation in the Global Economy

Richard J. Herring

The Limits Of Influence : Americas Role In Kashmir

HOWARD B. SCHAFFER

Politics & Government

In just a few years, the Internet has had a visible impact on the daily lives of many Americans. But the recent demise of many of the "dot coms" that symbolized the Internet revolution has raised warning flags about its future. Until now, discussion of the impact of the Internet on the economy has been mostly speculation. In Beyond the Dot.coms, two of the nation's most respected economists articulate the anticipated economic impact of the Internet over the next five years. Drawing from detailed research conducted by the Brookings Task Force on the Internet and the Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy (BRIE) Internet Task Force (see page 10), Robert Litan and Alice Rivlin address the Internet's potential impacts on productivity, prices, and market structure. The research suggests that the most significant economic impact of the Internet will be its potential to increase productivity growth in the existing economy —with cheaper transactions, greater management efficiency, increased competition and broadened markets, more effective marketing and pricing, and increased consumer choice, convenience, and satisfaction. The greatest impact may not be felt in e-commerce, but rather in a wide range of "old economy" arenas, including health care and government.

Beyond the Dot.Coms: The Economic Promise of the Internet

Business & Money

Rivlin, Alice M.

Litan, Robert E.

Alice M. Rivlin

Economics

The United States government-backed by the overwhelming support of the American public-takes a hard line against international terrorism. The tenets of official U.S. counterterrorist policy are: make no concessions or deals with terrorists; bring them to justice for their crimes; isolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor terrorism; and bolster the counterterrorist capabilities of countries willing to work with the United States. While these tenets are sound principles, their application, specifically overseas, raises difficult questions. Does the "no deal" policy actually deter terrorists acts? Are there cases where agreements might reduce terrorism, while advancing other U.S. interests? Do isolation and pressure really force offending states to alter their support for terrorists? What factors affect the willingness, not just the capability, of foreign governments to help the United States in counterterrorism? In this critical study, a career CIA officer provides a guide to constructing and executing counterterrorist policy, urging that it be formulated as an integral part of broader U.S. foreign policy. In the first four chapters, Paul R. Pillar identifies the necessary elements of counterterrorist policy, he examines why the United States is a prime terrorist target, and he reveals why the counterterrorist policies that seem strongest are not always the most effective. Chapter 5 examines the widely varying nature of terrorist groups and the policy tools most appropriately applied to them. Chapter 6 focuses on states that sponsor terrorism (including Iran, Libya, North Korea, and Cuba), along with those that enable it to occur (particularly Greece and Pakistan). Pillar examines ways in which the American public's perspective toward terrorism can actually constrain counterterrorist policy, and he concludes that terrorism cannot be "defeated" only reduced, attenuated, and to some degree, controlled. The final chapter summarizes his recommendations for amending U.S. policy.

Terrorism and U.S. Foreign Policy

Pillar Georgetown University, Paul R.

The New Campaign Finance Sourcebook has been integrated with the award-winning and frequently visited Brookings website to provide a timely, interactive tool for policymakers, journalists, and scholars. Four of the country's leading experts on campaign finance reform have contributed original essays on important facets of finance law and administration. The essays are accompanied by a list of corresponding documents available on the website. The book offers a thorough overview and analysis of this highly controversial issue, including the history of campaign finance regulation and the current state of the law, current practices and trends in the flow of money, the constitutional debate, the use of political party money, issue advocacy, public financing of presidential elections, implementing and enforcing campaign finance laws, and campaigning on the internet. The authors conclude with a broad overview of alternative approaches to reform. The related website (www.brookings.edu/campaignfinance) features sidebars that correspond to the book's chapters as well as associated documents. The site is frequently updated with recent developments in campaign finance regulation and analyses of current court cases and administrative decisions. There are also links to advisory opinions from the Federal Elections Commission, nonprofit organizations that study reform, and related publications-.

The New Campaign Finance Sourcebook

Mann, Thomas E.

Corrado, Anthony

Ortiz, Daniel R.

Potter, Trevor

Finance

For years, Americans have seen India as a giant but inept state. That negative image is now obsolete. After a decade of drift and uncertainty, India is taking its expected place as one of the three major states of Asia. Its pluralist, secular democracy has allowed the rise of hitherto deprived castes and ethnic communities. Economic liberalization is gathering steam, with six percent annual growth and annual exports in excess of $30 billion. India also has a modest capacity to project military power. The country will soon have a two-carrier navy and it is developing a nuclear-armed missile capable of reaching all of Asia. This landmark book provides the first comprehensive assessment of India as a political and strategic power since India's nuclear tests, its 1999 war with Pakistan, and its breakthrough economic achievements. Stephen P. Cohen examines the domestic and international causes of India's "emergence," he discusses the way social structure and tradition shape Delhi's perceptions of the world, and he explores India's relations with neighboring Pakistan and China, as well as the United States. Cohen argues that American policy needs to be adjusted to cope with a rising India —and that a relationship well short of alliance, but far more intimate than in the past, is appropriate for both countries.

India: Emerging Power

Cohen, Stephen P.

This provocative book takes the form of a dialogue between French Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine and international relations expert Dominique Moïsi. Védrine expresses his frank views of the U.S. "hyperpower," France's role in the world, Europe's future, the current structure of the international system, and the role of ethics in international affairs. Probing the historic, diplomatic and cultural issues that unite and divide two historical allies, the book give unique insights into French thinking about the world, and France and America's respective roles in it. "Like the French satirical television show that twits the United States for being the 'World Company' that invades peoples lives around the globe, the French foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine, expresses frustration, and perhaps a little envy, at America's dominion.... "Since becoming foreign minister three years ago, Mr. Vedrine, 53, a lawyer and previously the senior foreign policy advisor to Francois Mitterand when he was president, has made a priority of making distinctions between France and the United States. That has left senior American officials muttering more than usual about the French." --New York Times

France in an Age of Globalization

Védrine, Hubert

Reference

Arms control and missile defense are once again at the forefront of the American national security agenda. Not surprisingly, the debate has broken down along well-worn lines. Arms control advocates dismiss the idea of missile defense as a dangerous and costly folly. Missile defense advocates argue that the U.S. should move aggressively to defend itself against missile attack. With clear and lively prose free of partisan rhetoric, Defending America provides reliable, factual analysis of the missile defense debate. Written for a general audience, it assesses the current and likely future missile threat to the United States, examines relevant technologies, and suggests how America's friends and foes would react to a decision to build a national missile defense. Lindsay and O'Hanlon reject calls for large-scale systems as well as proposals to do nothing, instead arguing for a limited national missile defense.

Defending America:The Case for Limited National Missile Defense

O'Hanlon, Michael E.

Lindsay, James M.

Michael E. O'Hanlon

Criminal Law

Why did President Clinton's efforts to reform the financing of American health care fail? For years to come, politicians and scholars of public policy will revisit the debate over Clinton's health care plan. What did planners do right? And what did they do wrong? How can the mistakes of that experience be avoided in the future? What steps can now be taken to achieve some measure of reform in smaller pieces? In The Problem That Won't Go Away, economists, political scientists, sociologists, public opinion experts, and government staff offer answers to these and other crucial questions. They recount the history of the Clinton health care plan, present several alternative strategies the administration might have pursued, and conclude that none was likely to achieve the administration's goals of universal coverage and cost containment. Many support the view that the administration, Congress, and the nation lacked the political consensus and the information to credibly describe the effects of any single bill to reform the U.S. health care system. In that case, was the only option available to the administration to reach for goals far more modest than those it sought? Health care financing as a national political issue will not go away. Pressure to cut public spending to balance the budget means that medicare and medicaid will stay in the legislative spotlight; the retirement of the baby-boom generation in the beginning of the next century promises large increases in the cost of medicare; and a flood of new and costly medical technologies will continue to put financial pressure on everyone responsible for paying for health insurance. But, as this book illustrates, the nature of the debate in the years after the demise of the Clinton plan will be altogether different from that of the past several decades.

The Problem that Won't Go Away: Reforming U.S. Health Care Financing

Aaron, Henry

Industries

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