Examining the dynamic movements for self-determination that are erupting around the world, this book considers the right and wisdom of intervention to support or oppose such movements and proposes policy guidance for the US government, particularly the criteria for support groups seeking self-determination for political recognition and for non-forcible and forcible interventions.

Self-Determination in the New World Order: Guidelines for U.S. Policy

Politics & Social Sciences

Halperin, Morton

Small, Patricia L.

Scheffer, David J.

Politics & Government

Carnegie Endowment for Int'l Peace

With the breakup of the Soviet Union and the growing links between the Caucasus, Central and South Asia, and the Middle East, a strategic map of the region is emerging with far-reaching implications for the United States and other major powers.
 Geoffrey Kemp and Robert Harkavy argue that increasing demand for Persian Gulf and Caspian Basic energy, especially from the booming Asian economies, ensures that the Middle East will remain a global strategic prize and source of continued rivalry. At the same time, radical changes in conventional military technology and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, along with the specter of megaterrorism, present ominous future possibilities—in relation to both warfare scenarios involving the Arab-Israel, Iran-Iraq, and India-Pakistan conflicts and the potential need for U.S. interventions.
 The authors likewise signal the region's positive potential. The Middle East has the capacity to move toward a more constructive and peaceful future. Intra-regional proposals already exist for joint infrastructure projects, shared oil and gas pipelines, and improved transportation and communication grids linking the region to Europe. These proposals could usher in a new era of prosperity and cooperation.
 A wealth of information is made very accessible through the use of 36 maps detailing the region's history, geography, energy resources, military conflict zones and basing infrastructure, as well as roads and rail and water routes.

Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East

History

Harkavy, Robert E.

Kemp, Geoffrey

Middle East

With the breakup of the Soviet Union and the growing links between the Caucasus, Central and South Asia, and the Middle East, a strategic map of the region is emerging with far-reaching implications for the United States and other major powers. Geoffrey Kemp and Robert Harkavy argue that increasing demand for Persian Gulf and Caspian Basic energy, especially from the booming Asian economies, ensures that the Middle East will remain a global strategic prize and source of continued rivalry. At the same time, radical changes in conventional military technology and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, along with the specter of megaterrorism, present ominous future possibilities—in relation to both warfare scenarios involving the Arab-Israel, Iran-Iraq, and India-Pakistan conflicts and the potential need for U.S. interventions. The authors likewise signal the region's positive potential. The Middle East has the capacity to move toward a more constructive and peaceful future. Intra-regional proposals already exist for joint infrastructure projects, shared oil and gas pipelines, and improved transportation and communication grids linking the region to Europe. These proposals could usher in a new era of prosperity and cooperation. A wealth of information is made very accessible through the use of 36 maps detailing the region's history, geography, energy resources, military conflict zones and basing infrastructure, as well as roads and rail and water routes.

Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Political and economic reform is at the top of national agendas around the world. This book based on Moises Naim's participation in the Venezuelan reform experience and as executive director at the World Bank raises questions and explores problems crucial to achieving national reform strategies. Naim's lucid analysis grapples with the problems of dealing with entrenched interests bent on derailing reform; allaying the corrosive effects of corruption and public outcry over inequitable burdens; coping with the political instability brought on by decimated public institutions; managing the impact of reforms on the military establishment; and mobilizing public support for measures as essential as they are painful. The heady days of revolution are gone and these and other dilemmas now confront besieged reform governments everywhere. The problem of managing these in the real world is the subject this book tackles.

Paper Tigers and Minotaurs: The Politics of Venezuela's Economic Reforms

Business & Money

Naím, Moisés

Economics

Eight prominent Russian experts contribute to this unique Russian-American analysis of the state of Russia's arms industry and national export controls, as well as the strategic implications of Russian arms sales to China and clients in the Middle East.
 Since the early 1990s, Russia's once colossal defense-industrial complex has been in upheaval. Parts of the arms industry have collapsed, and hopes for conversion from military to civilian production have proven largely illusory. An aggressive arms-sales policy—seen as a panacea—has also met with mixed results. At the same time, turmoil in domestic politics and in the reform process has limited and slowed much-needed changes in the industry's organization, operations, decisionmaking, and controls over the export of arms and sensitive technologies.
 The authors examine these and other issues posed by Russia's participation in the world arms trade, weigh the chances of Russian-American discord over arms exports to "rogue states" as well as the possibilities for arms cooperation; discuss the prospects for Russia's expanded participation in multilateral arms restraint and international norm-setting, and offer policy proposals. The book evolved from discussions of the Russian-American working group on conventional arms proliferation convened by the co-editors at the Carnegie Endowment's Moscow Center.

Russia in the World Arms Trade

In recent years, assistance aimed at promoting democracy abroad has become a major component of U.S. foreign aid and of the U.S. government's post-Cold War policy of seeking to enlarge the international community of democratic nations. Despite its rapid growth, however, democracy assistance remains poorly understood in practice and its value is frequently questioned.
 This landmark study, an examination of U.S. democracy assistance efforts in Romania, is the first comprehensive analysis of the workings—and failings—of U.S. democracy assistance in one country. Based on the author's extensive field research, the study provides widely applicable answers to key questions about the value, strategies, methods, and future of such assistance.

Assessing Democracy Assistance: The Case of Romania

Carothers, Thomas

"...a superlative document—an incisive analysis of the rise of nationalism and its contribution to the death of Yugoslavia and to the wars that followed, an unflattering account of the West's failure to end the Bosnian war, a set of sensible recommendations for each country in the region, and imaginative proposals for the Balkans as a whole. Unfinished Peace, remarkably well written for a product of group-think, has a moral force which lifts its prescriptions far above the level of the normal policy institute paperback.... Unfinished Peace deserves to be read not just by Balkan experts, but by anyone concerned about the human condition and the human character under stress."— The New York Review of Books Drawing on its extensive, high-level, and politically comprehensive discussions throughout the region, the Commission investigates the causes of the recent Balkan conflicts and provides an independent assessment of the European, American, and UN responses. It calls for a wide range of stabilizing measures—including proposals for the treatment of minorities, the promotion of democracy, and Balkan cooperation. To be effective, the Commission warns, such efforts must be reinforced by NATO's continuing and coherent military engagement.
 The Commission was established in 1995 by the Aspen Institute Berlin and the Carnegie Endowment to provide an independent perspective on the region's continuing problems and to propose a concerted Western approach to long-term stability. The eminent leaders who served on the Commission were Leo Tindemans (Chairman), Lloyd Cutler, Bronislaw Geremek, John Roper, Theo Sommer, Simone Veil, and David Anderson (ex officio). Jacques Rupnik headed the Commission staff.

Unfinished Peace: Report of the International Commission on the Balkans (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Europe

The emerging relationship between China and Russia is perhaps the most important force redefining international relations in post-Cold War Asia. In the past five years, Russia and China have built a "strategic partnership aimed at the 21st century," a development that deeply worries some Western observers and puzzles others. In this first comprehensive study of Russian-Chinese relations, Sherman Garnett and a team of 15 U.S., Russian, and Chinese scholars analyze the most important issues posed by the relationship, including cross-border trade, the impact of Russia's center-periphery politics, migration, arms sales, and (mis)perceptions of one another. The book assesses what will be one of the most important relationships, economically and strategically, in the dynamic region stretching from Central Asia to the Far East. It also weighs the prospects for real cooperation between Russia, a severely weakened power, and China, a power on the rise. Contributing authors include Stephen Blank, Sherman Garnett, Vilya Gel'bras, Harry Gelman, Li Jingjie, Michael McFaul, Lu Nanquan, Martha Olcott, Gilbert Rozman, Judith Thornton, Dmitri Trenin, Tamara Troyakova, Galina Vitkovskaya, Alexei Voskressenski, Elizabeth Wishnick, and Zhanna Zayonchkovskaya.

Rapprochement or Rivalry?: Russia-China Relations in a Changing Asia

Sherman Garnett, Editor

In this comprehensive assessment of what has happened in Russia since 1991--what has been accomplished and what so far has failed--the author argues that the new situation in Russia cannot be defined simply in terms of either authoritarianism or liberal democracy. The reality is more complicated—a heterogeneous patchwork of despotism, liberalism, populism, paternalism, and democracy all coexisting. Russia's political life is marked by plurality of views and actors. Opposition movements are proliferating. On the economic front, Russia crossed the threshold to a market economy. Strides have been made in providing guarantees for individual liberties. Russians turn out to vote, for instance, in numbers that put US voters to shame. These advances are impressive. Yet Russia is still struggling desperately to evolve from its Soviet past. New conflicts emerged that are now beginning to act as a brake on reform. The basic problems of state-building have yet to be resolved: defining the nation in an ethnically mixed population, building consensus on power-sharing among federal power and regional leaders, creating a meaningful post-superpower international role. Shevtsova analyzes the major issues of Russian development: the behavior of major interest groups, the emergence of new oligarchic clans, the clashes of branches of power and what is behind them, the real causes of Chechen war, the interaction of stability and instability. She scrutinizes the major political personalities who have had and continue to have an impact on Russian developments--Gaidar, Rutzkoi, Kchasbulatov, Chernomyrdin, Chubais. The main focus is on Yeltsin, who has managed stunning political transformations--from communist to populist, to liberal, democrat, and statist. Over and over, he has regained preeminence at the very moment when even his own supporters had virtually written him off. Much will depend on the manner, character, and timing of his departure from the political scene--as well as on the legacy he leaves behind.

Yeltsin's Russia: Myths and Reality

Shevtsova, Lilia

Russia

This book's starting assumption is that democracy is always desirable, but may not always be possible in the short and medium run. The road to democracy thus may not initially be democratic. In this perspective, the author examines the experience of a small number of African countries which--under the guidance of energetic new leaders--have turned the corner away from conflict and economic disintegration and are now pursuing economic and political reform and assertive foreign policies that have made them into important regional players. Uganda, Ethiopia, and Eritrea--countries long synonymous with war and economic chaos--are now among the most dynamic on the continent. Their success is making them into a model attractive to other African governments, particularly in other countries emerging from conflict. Yet these countries' new leaders refuse to carry out the democratic reforms favored by the U.S., arguing that such measures would cause more conflict. Instead, they will move toward political reform in their own way and at their own pace. Can this process eventually lead to democracy or is it bound to restart a vicious circle of authoritarianism and economic decay? And can the U.S. influence the change, while accepting that the process is bound to be long and complex? These questions will confront the U.S. with increasing frequency in coming years. As the countries where democratic transformation was easiest move forward toward consolidation, policy makers will be forced to deal with those countries where democratic change is more complex.

Africa's New Leaders: Democracy or State Reconstruction?

Ottaway, Marina

Africa

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