As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. It examines Russian vulnerabilities and anxieties; analyzes potential policy options to exploit them; and assesses the associated benefits, costs, and risks, as well as the likelihood of successful implementation.

Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground

History

Morgan, Forrest E.

DeLuca, Paul

Frederick, Bryan

Chandler, Nathan

Cohen, Raphael S.

Geist, Edward

Shatz, Howard J.

Williams, Brent

Americas

RAND Corporation

Since 2008 Russia’s military forces have improved, enabling Russian military operations in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and Syria. Researchers analyze the societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. Based on these factors, they analyze how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve. The challenge for the U.S. military will be to compete in different regions without provoking escalation.

The Future of the Russian Military: Russia’s Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition

Charap, Samuel

Massicot, Dara

Reach, Clint

Han, Eugeniu

Davis, Lynn E.

Radin, Andrew

Migacheva, Katya

Long, Austin

MacKenzie, William

Povlock, Matthew

Boston, Scott

Johnston, Trevor

Europe

Despite its global advantages, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s current deterrent posture in the Baltic states is militarily weak and generally questionable. A Russian invasion there would almost surely capture some or all of those states’ capital cities within a few days, presenting NATO with a fait accompli. This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring such an invasion.

Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States

Davis, Paul K.

Oberholtzer, Jenny

Frelinger, David R.

Gilmore, Christopher K.

Tarraf, Danielle C.

Gilmore, J. Michael

In this report, the authors assess the state of artificial intelligence (AI) relevant to DoD and address misconceptions about it; conduct an independent and introspective assessment of the Department of Defense's posture in AI; and put forth a set of recommendations for internal actions, external engagements, and potential legislative or regulatory actions that could enhance the Department of Defense posture in AI.

The Department of Defense Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations

Computers & Technology

Wyne, Ali

Shelton, William

Schlang, Danielle

Alkire, Brien

Parker, Edward

Newberry, Sydne

Gehlhaus, Diana

Léveillé, Jasmin

Smith, Victoria M.

Mondschein, Jared

Vedula, Padmaja

Ryseff, James

Harris, Benjamin N.

Grana, Justin

Tingstad, Abbie

Sachs, Chandler

Levedahl, Alexis

Elinoff, Dan

Hui, Eric

Schirmer, Peter

Warren, Kristin

Computer Science

Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions

Tabatabai, Ariane M.

Kavanagh, Jennifer

Heath, Timothy R.

Curriden, Christian

Asia

Despite Russia?s relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other U.S. competitor since the end of the Cold War. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia conducts military interventions by analyzing the 25 interventions that Russia has undertaken since 1991, including detailed case studies of the 2008 Russia-Georgia War and Moscow?s involvement in the ongoing Syrian civil war.

Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

Drennan, John

U.S.-Russia strategic stability is based on mutual vulnerability to retaliation, which eliminates the incentive to strike first. Yet the United States has developed capabilities that Moscow fears could be used for a first strike. These threat perceptions have become a significant source of instability. The authors examine the origins of this dynamic and its impact on bilateral stability and evaluate policy changes that could mitigate that impact.

Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability

Drennan, John J.

Griffith, Luke

Carlson, Brian G.

Exploring the Feasibility and Utility of Machine Learning-Assisted Command and Control (Volume 1)

Business & Money

Martin, Nicholas

Walsh, Matthew

Hastings, Eric

Menthe, Lance

Kerrigan, Joshua

Margolis, Joshua

Donnelly, Brian P.

Management & Leadership

This volume serves as the technical analysis to a report concerning the potential for artificial intelligence systems to assist in Air Force command and control (C2). The authors present their analysis of the problem characteristics and solution capabilities described in Volume 1. They provide details about the expert panel used to gather data and three technical case studies that demonstrate a wide range of solutions to various C2 problems.

Exploring the Feasibility and Utility of Machine Learning-Assisted Command and Control (Volume 2)

Russian Military Strategy: Organizing Operations for the Initial Period of War

Blanc, Alexis A.

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Books by Geist, Edward