Since 2008 Russia’s military forces have improved, enabling Russian military operations in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and Syria. Researchers analyze the societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. Based on these factors, they analyze how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve. The challenge for the U.S. military will be to compete in different regions without provoking escalation.

The Future of the Russian Military: Russia’s Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition

History

Charap, Samuel

Massicot, Dara

Reach, Clint

Han, Eugeniu

Davis, Lynn E.

Radin, Andrew

Migacheva, Katya

Long, Austin

Geist, Edward

MacKenzie, William

Povlock, Matthew

Boston, Scott

Johnston, Trevor

Europe

RAND Corporation

Understanding Russia's grand strategy can help U.S. decisionmakers assess the depth and nature of potential conflicts between Russia and the United States and avoid strategic surprise by better-anticipating Moscow's actions and reactions. The authors of this report review Russia's declared grand strategy, evaluate the extent to which Russian behavior is consistent with stated strategy, and outline implications for the United States.

Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality

Priebe, Miranda

Demus, Alyssa

Stalczynski, Mark

Americas

Since 2014, China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, increasing political, military, and economic cooperation. In this report, the authors seek to understand the history of cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, the drivers of and constraints on the relationship, the potential future of cooperation between China and Russia, the impact of the Chinese-Russian relationship on the United States, and implications for future U.S. policy.

China-Russia Cooperation: Determining Factors, Future Trajectories, Implications for the United States

Business & Money

Scobell, Andrew

Shatz, Howard J.

Treyger, Elina

Ma, Logan

Zeigler, Sean M.

Williams, J.D.

Economics

For decades, Russia has used political, military, economic, informational, and clandestine tools to advance its goals of establishing a privileged sphere of influence in the Black Sea region and enhancing its capabilities for national defense and wider power projection. In this report, the authors review those tactics and identify elements of a Western strategy to protect mutual interests and counter Russian malign influence and aggression.

Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security

Costello, Katherine

Binnendijk, Anika

Flanagan, Stephen J.

Chindea, Irina A.

Kirkwood, Geoffrey

Military forecasting informs long-term military planning of the Russian Ministry of Defense. In this report, the authors draw on a framework developed by the Russian military science community to examine several key indicators related to military forecasting to gain insight into the likelihood and character of future war and the correlation of military potential between Russia and potential adversaries.

Russian Military Forecasting and Analysis: The Military-Political Situation and Military Potential in Strategic Planning

Shokh, Yuliya

Lilly, Bilyana

Marcinek, Krystyna

Russian Military Strategy: Organizing Operations for the Initial Period of War

Blanc, Alexis A.

U.S. forward military posture can both deter and provoke armed conflict, and a similar logic pertains below the level of armed conflict. The authors of this report identify how forward posture could deter hostile measures in the competition space below the level of armed conflict through several mechanisms, particularly focusing on the presence of U.S. ground forces.

Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia: The Role of Ground Forces in Preventing Hostile Measures Below Armed Conflict in Europe

Watts, Stephen

Rooney, Bryan

Germanovich, Gene

McClintock, Bruce

Pezard, Stephanie

Shostak, Melissa

Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century

Mazarr, Michael J.

Johnson, Christian

Heath, Timothy R.

Eaton, Derek

Rhoades, Ashley L.

Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Nathan

Léveillé, Jasmin

Feistel, Katie

Langeland, Krista

McBirney, Samantha

Vedula, Padmaja

Yoder, Emily

Reference

Russia’s Evolution Toward a Unified Strategic Operation: The Influence of Geography and Conventional Capacity

Computers & Technology

Lynch, Christopher

Grisé, Michelle

Woodworth, David

Holynska, Khrystyna

Networking & Cloud Computing

The Cost of the Ukraine War for Russia (Rand Project Air Force: Research Report)

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