The challenge of deterring territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion of it has lagged in U.S. military and strategy circles. The authors aim to provide a fresh look, with two primary purposes: to review established concepts about deterrence, and to provide a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships. They focus on a specific type of deterrence: extended deterrence of interstate aggression.

What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression

History

Demus, Alyssa

Mazarr, Michael J.

Frederick, Bryan

Chan, Arthur

Pezard, Stephanie

Treyger, Elina

Nader, Alireza

Thompson, Julia A.

Military

RAND Corporation

The practitioners of hostile social manipulation employ social media, sophisticated forgeries, cyberbullying and harassment, distribution of rumors and conspiracy theories, and other tools to cause damage to their target state. This report represents an effort to better define and understand the challenge by focusing on the activities of the two leading authors of such techniques--Russia and China.

Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends

Harold, Scott W.

Matthews, Luke J.

Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Nathan

Sladden, James

Casey, Abigail

Asia

Understanding Russia's grand strategy can help U.S. decisionmakers assess the depth and nature of potential conflicts between Russia and the United States and avoid strategic surprise by better-anticipating Moscow's actions and reactions. The authors of this report review Russia's declared grand strategy, evaluate the extent to which Russian behavior is consistent with stated strategy, and outline implications for the United States.

Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality

Charap, Samuel

Massicot, Dara

Priebe, Miranda

Reach, Clint

Stalczynski, Mark

Han, Eugeniu

Davis, Lynn E.

Americas

Military forecasting informs long-term military planning of the Russian Ministry of Defense. In this report, the authors draw on a framework developed by the Russian military science community to examine several key indicators related to military forecasting to gain insight into the likelihood and character of future war and the correlation of military potential between Russia and potential adversaries.

Russian Military Forecasting and Analysis: The Military-Political Situation and Military Potential in Strategic Planning

Shokh, Yuliya

Lilly, Bilyana

Marcinek, Krystyna

How are state adversaries using disinformation on social media to advance their interests? What does the joint force?and the U.S. Air Force in particular?need to be prepared to do in response? Disinformation campaigns on social media pose a nuanced threat to the United States, but the response remains ad hoc and uncoordinated. This series overview presents recommendations to better prepare for this new age of information warfare.

Combating Foreign Disinformation on Social Media: Study Overview and Conclusions

Hornung, Jeffrey W.

Cohen, Raphael S.

Schwille, Michael

Cheravitch, Joe

Jun, Jenny

Vest, Nathan

Reference

Anticipating Flashpoints with Russia: Patterns and Drivers

Dunigan, Molly

Chindea, Irina A.

Welch, Jonathan

Shostak, Melissa

Johnson, Grant

Drennan, John J.

Zeigler, Sean M.

Fauerbach, Gregory Weider

Landgraf III, Walter F.

Russia’s Evolution Toward a Unified Strategic Operation: The Influence of Geography and Conventional Capacity

Computers & Technology

Lynch, Christopher

Grisé, Michelle

Woodworth, David

Holynska, Khrystyna

Networking & Cloud Computing

The Russian General Staff: Understanding the Military’s Decisionmaking Role in a “Besieged Fortress”

Kepe, Marta

Lander, Natasha

Evans, Sandra Kay

Blanc, Alexis A.

Hvizda, Mark

Europe

The authors examine Ukrainian civilians' contributions to support Ukraine's defense against Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. Civilian-based resistance is integral to Ukraine's territorial defense efforts and has potential value in helping ensure victory by regaining territorial integrity and maintaining political sovereignty. The war in Ukraine also offers insight into potential trends in civilian actions in future wars.

Resisting Russia: Insights into Ukraine’s Civilian-Based Actions During the First Four Months of the War in 2022

Deterring Russia and Iran: Improving Effectiveness and Finding Efficiencies

Radin, Andrew

Martini, Jeffrey

Rhoades, Ashley L.

Pfrommer, Katherine

Thaler, David E.

Sachs, Chandler

Sudkamp, Karen M.

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