There is significant concern about Russian use of “hybrid warfare” in the Baltics. To understand this threat, the author of this report analyzes three potential scenarios—nonviolent subversion, covert violent action, and conventional aggression supported by political subversion. The author finds that, given the growing integration of Russian speakers and high capacity of the Baltic states, the greatest threat comes from conventional aggression.

Hybrid Warfare in the Baltics: Threats and Potential Responses

History

Radin, Andrew

Americas

RAND Corporation

This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia’s approach, draws inferences from Moscow’s intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere.

Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

Kofman, Michael

Migacheva, Katya

Nichiporuk, Brian

Tkacheva, Olesya

Oberholtzer, Jenny

Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea has challenged the integrity of Europe’s territorial borders and had a broader negative impact on the European security environment. This report analyzes how Europeans perceive the Russian threat—whether European states regard Russia’s policy in eastern and northern Europe as a security priority, how they have responded to Russian behavior, and how officials see the future of Russo-European relations.

European Relations with Russia: Threat Perceptions, Responses, and Strategies in the Wake of the Ukrainian Crisis

Szayna, Thomas S.

Pezard, Stephanie

Larrabee, F. Stephen

Europe

This report analyzes political warfare as it is practiced today by both state and nonstate actors, and provides detailed recommendations regarding the most effective ways that the U.S. government, along with its allies and partners, can respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve U.S. ends and protect U.S. interests.

Modern Political Warfare: Current Practices and Possible Responses

Robinson, Linda

Cohen, Raphael S.

Helmus, Todd C.

Magnuson, Madeline

Nader, Alireza

Military

As part of a larger study on the future of the post–World War II liberal international order, RAND researchers analyze the health of the existing order and offer implications for future U.S. policy. The study’s overall conclusion is that the postwar order continues to enjoy many elements of stability but is increasingly threatened by major geopolitical and domestic socioeconomic trends that call into question the order’s fundamental assumptions.

Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order

Priebe, Miranda

Mazarr, Michael J.

Cevallos, Astrid Stuth

Rothenberg, Alexander D.

Thompson, Julia A.

Reedy, Kathleen

Willcox, Jordan

Reference

Since 1945, the United States has pursued its global interests through creating and maintaining international economic institutions, bilateral and regional security organizations, and liberal political norms; these ordering mechanisms are often collectively referred to as the international order. This report examines options for future U.S. policies with respect to the order.

Alternative Options for U.S. Policy Toward the International Order

Russia employs a sophisticated social media campaign against former Soviet states that includes news tweets, nonattributed comments on web pages, troll and bot social media accounts, and fake hashtag and Twitter campaigns. Nowhere is this threat more tangible than in Ukraine. Researchers analyzed social media data and conducted interviews with regional and security experts to understand the critical ingredients to countering this campaign.

Russian Social Media Influence: Understanding Russian Propaganda in Eastern Europe

Marcellino, William

Mendelsohn, Joshua

Winkelman, Zev

Bodine-Baron, Elizabeth

Bega, Andriy

Institution Building in Weak States: The Primacy of Local Politics

The effort to improve state institutions in post-conflict societies is a complicated business. Even when foreign intervention is carried out with the best of intentions and the greatest resources, it often fails. What can account for this failure? In Institution Building in Weak States, Andrew Radin argues that the international community's approach to building state institutions needs its own reform. This innovative book proposes a new strategy, rooted in a rigorous analysis of recent missions.\nIn contrast to the common strategy of foreign interveners ― imposing models drawn from Western countries ― Radin shows how pursuing incremental change that accommodates local political interests is more likely to produce effective, accountable, and law-abiding institutions. Drawing on extensive field research and original interviews, Radin examines efforts to reform the central government, military, and police in post-conflict Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Iraq, and Timor-Leste. Based on his own experience in defense reform in Ukraine after 2014, Radin also draws parallels with efforts to improve state institutions outside of post-conflict societies.\nInstitution Building in Weak States introduces a domestic opposition theory that better explains why institution building fails and what is required to make it work. With actionable recommendations for smarter policy, the book offers an important corrective for scholars and practitioners of post-conflict missions, international development, peacebuilding, and security cooperation.

Georgetown University Press

The effort to improve state institutions in post-conflict societies is a complicated business. Even when foreign intervention is carried out with the best of intentions and the greatest resources, it often fails. What can account for this failure? In Institution Building in Weak States, Andrew Radin argues that the international community's approach to building state institutions needs its own reform. This innovative book proposes a new strategy, rooted in a rigorous analysis of recent missions. In contrast to the common strategy of foreign interveners--imposing models drawn from Western countries--Radin shows how pursuing incremental change that accommodates local political interests is more likely to produce effective, accountable, and law-abiding institutions. Drawing on extensive field research and original interviews, Radin examines efforts to reform the central government, military, and police in post-conflict Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Iraq, and Timor-Leste. Based on his own experience in defense reform in Ukraine after 2014, Radin also draws parallels with efforts to improve state institutions outside of post-conflict societies. Institution Building in Weak States introduces a domestic opposition theory that better explains why institution building fails and what is required to make it work. With actionable recommendations for smarter policy, the book offers an important corrective for scholars and practitioners of post-conflict missions, international development, peacebuilding, and security cooperation.

Since 2008 Russia’s military forces have improved, enabling Russian military operations in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and Syria. Researchers analyze the societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. Based on these factors, they analyze how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve. The challenge for the U.S. military will be to compete in different regions without provoking escalation.

The Future of the Russian Military: Russia’s Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition

Charap, Samuel

Massicot, Dara

Reach, Clint

Han, Eugeniu

Davis, Lynn E.

Long, Austin

Geist, Edward

MacKenzie, William

Povlock, Matthew

Boston, Scott

Johnston, Trevor

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