Underestimated Second Edition: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future

Henry D. Sokolski

Nonproliferation Policy Education Center

With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players.
This, in a nutshell, is the premise of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what we may be up against and how we think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? Might they be used and, if so, what might we suffer? Finally, what can be done? Underestimated examines each of these questions.
NPEC created the first version of Underestimated in November of 2014. The Strategic Studies Institute published an updated first edition in December of 2015 and a second edition in August of 2018. This second edition includes the very latest citations and research.

Politics & Social Sciences

Sokolski, Henry D.

Politics & Government

In Reactor-Grade Plutonium and Nuclear Weapons: Exploding the Myths, long-time defense analyst Gregory S. Jones draws from his decades of research using publicly available, unclassified information to debunk the persistent fallacy that reactor-grade plutonium cannot be used to build reliable nuclear weapons. This belief has long been held by a segment of the nuclear power industry determined to use plutonium as reactor fuel despite its highly uneconomical nature. Further, this mistaken belief has made reactor-grade plutonium readily available to many non-nuclear weapon states.  In the book, Jones shows that nuclear weapons can be manufactured using reactor-grade plutonium that have the same predetonation probability, size and weight as nuclear weapons using weapon-grade plutonium. In addition to technical analysis, the book describes how Sweden and Pakistan planned to use reactor-grade plutonium for their nuclear weapons programs and how India may be planning to do so today. Jones also details how the U.S. successfully tested a nuclear weapon using what was truly reactor-grade plutonium in 1962. All of this leads Jones to argue for banning plutonium recycling and reprocessing globally.

Reactor-Grade Plutonium and Nuclear Weapons: Exploding the Myths

Jones, Mr. Greg

Space and Missile Wars: What Awaits

Kelley, Brandon

COOPER, DAVID

Bernstein, David

Maurer, John

Cerny, Michael

Garretson, Peter

Chow, Brian

Pasco, Xavier

Piliero, Raphael

Specialties

Over-Classification: How Bad Is It, What's the Fix?

Sokolski, Henry

Nuclear Danger and the NPT

History

Military

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