Although the United States efforts to prevent the spread of strategic weapons have varied significantly since 1945, they all presumed to be avoiding one or another type of strategic war. To the extent their military scenarios were sound, so too were the nonproliferation remedies these initiatives promoted. But, as Sokolski demonstrates, the obverse was also true--when these intiatives' military hopes and fears were mistaken, their nonproliferation recommendations also missed their mark.
What is the best hope for breaking out of this box and securing a higher rate of nonproliferation success? The United States must base nonproliferation policies less on insights concerning strategic military trends and more on the progressive economic and political trends that have increased the number of relatively peaceful, prosperous, liberal democracies. For the proliferating nations that are exceptions to this trend, the U.S. and its allies need to devise ways of competing that will encourage these governments to expend more energies shoring up their weaknesses and eventually giving way to less militant regimes. A major resource for students and military professionals interested in arms control and international relations.

Best of Intentions: America's Campaign Against Strategic Weapons Proliferation

History

Sokolski, Henry D.

Military

Praeger

Best of Intentions: America's Campaign Against Strategic Weapons Proliferation (Praeger Security International)

With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players.
This, in a nutshell, is the premise of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what we may be up against and how we think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? Might they be used and, if so, what might we suffer? Finally, what can be done? Underestimated examines each of these questions.
NPEC created the first version of Underestimated in November of 2014. The Strategic Studies Institute published an updated first edition in December of 2015 and a second edition in August of 2018. This second edition includes the very latest citations and research.

Underestimated Second Edition: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future

Politics & Social Sciences

Politics & Government

Nonproliferation Policy Education Center

The Next Arms Race

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (New START) agreement was reached in 2011, and both Russia and the United States are bringing nuclear strategic warhead deployments down to roughly 1,500 on each side. In the next round of strategic arms reduction talks, though, U.S. officials hope to cut far deeper; perhaps as low as several hundred warheads on each side-numbers that approach what other nuclear weapons states, such as France, China, Israel, India, and Pakistan either have or will soon possess. This, then, raises the question of how compatible such reductions might be with the nuclear activities of other states. How might Russia view the nuclear and military modernization activities of China? How might the continuing nuclear and military competition between Pakistan and India play out? What might the nuclear dynamics be between North and South Korea, Japan, and China? What might other states interested in developing a nuclear weapons option of their own make of the way the superpowers have so far dealt with the nuclear programs in India, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and North Korea? Are "peaceful" nuclear competitions in the Middle and Far East where states build up civilian nuclear programs to help them develop nuclear weapons options inevitable? What, beyond current nuclear control efforts, might help to reduce such nuclear threats? Each of these questions and more are examined with precision in The Next Arms Race.

BiblioGov

Pioneers of nuclear-age policy analysis, Albert Wohlstetter (1913-1997) and Roberta Wohlstetter (1912-2007) emerged as two of America's most consequential, innovative and controversial strategists. Through the clarity of their thinking, the rigor of their research, and the persistence of their personalities, they were able to shape the views and aid the decisions of Democratic and Republican policy makers both during and after the Cold War. Although the Wohlstetters' strategic concepts and analytical methods continue to be highly influential, no book has brought together their most important essays--until now.   Edited by Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) research fellow Robert Zarate and NPEC executive director Henry Sokolski, Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter demonstrates not only the historical importance, but also the continuing relevance of the Wohlstetters' work in national security strategy and nuclear policy. It is the first book to make widely available over twenty of Albert and Roberta's most influential published--and unpublished--writings on:   • methods of policy analysis and design;  • nuclear deterrence through survivable, controllable and therefore credible strategic forces;  • nuclear proliferation and the military potential of civil nuclear energy;  • spiraling arms-race myths versus the real, observable dynamics of strategic competition;  • the revolutionary potential of non-nuclear technologies of precision, control, and information; and  • the continuing need for prudence and pragmatism in the face of changing dangers.   In addition, Nuclear Heuristics provides readers with an introduction to the Wohlstetters' work by editor Robert Zarate; and short commentaries on Wohlstetter writings by Henry S. Rowen (2005 WMD Commissioner and former Assistant Secretary of Defense), Alain C. Enthoven (former Assistant Secretary of Defense), Henry Sokolski (2008 WMD Proliferation and Terrorism Commissioner and former Pentagon official), Richard Perle (former Assistant Secretary of Defense and emeritus Defense Policy Board chairman), Stephen J. Lukasik (former Director of the Pentagon's Advanced Research Projects Agency, now DARPA), and Andrew W. Marshall (Director of the Office of Net Assessment).   Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter is a must-read and an indispensable resource for policy makers, military planners, and strategic analysts, as well as for students who aspire to these positions.

Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter

Zarate, Robert

Pakistan's Nuclear Future: Worries Beyond War

As the United States and Russia negotiate to bring their number of deployed nuclear weapons down, China, India, Pakistan, and Israel continue to bump their numbers up while a growing number of smaller states develop "peaceful" nuclear programs that will bring them closer to getting bombs if they choose. Welcome to the brave new world of tighter, more opaque nuclear competitions, the focus of The Next Arms Race-a must read for policy analysts and planners eager to understand and prevent the worst.

Reference

Writing, Research & Publishing Guides

U.S. Army War College, SSI

With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players.This, in a nutshell, is the premise of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what nuclear futures we may face over the next 3 decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How great will the consequences be? What can be done? Audience: This book may appeal to national strategic policy analysts, political scientists, and students researching nuclear defenses, nuclear terrorism, and nuclear proliferation as part of pursuing an international relations degree. Related products:
Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977-1980, Volume XXVI, Arms Control and Nonproliferation can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/044-000-02673-2
Nuclear Weapons Materials Gone Missing: What Does History Teach? can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-000-01130-3
Arms Control History collection can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/us-military-history/arms-control-history
Arms &amp; Weapons collection can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/security-defense-law-enforcement/arms-...

Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future

Department of the Army

Space and Missile Wars: What Awaits

Kelley, Brandon

COOPER, DAVID

Bernstein, David

Maurer, John

Cerny, Michael

Garretson, Peter

Chow, Brian

Pasco, Xavier

Piliero, Raphael

Specialties

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