Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty

Business & Money

Raiffa, Howard

Economics

Mcgraw-Hill College

Management & Leadership

Raiffa: Decision Analysis

Longman Higher Education

The Bayesian revolution in statistics—where statistics is integrated with decision making in areas such as management, public policy, engineering, and clinical medicine—is here to stay. Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory states the case and in a self-contained, comprehensive way shows how the approach is operational and relevant for real-world decision making under uncertainty. Starting with an extensive account of the foundations of decision theory, the authors develop the intertwining concepts of subjective probability and utility. They then systematically and comprehensively examine the Bernoulli, Poisson, and Normal (univariate and multivariate) data generating processes. For each process they consider how prior judgments about the uncertain parameters of the process are modified given the results of statistical sampling, and they investigate typical decision problems in which the main sources of uncertainty are the population parameters. They also discuss the value of sampling information and optimal sample sizes given sampling costs and the economics of the terminal decision problems. Unlike most introductory texts in statistics, Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory integrates statistical inference with decision making and discusses real-world actions involving economic payoffs and risks. After developing the rationale and demonstrating the power and relevance of the subjective, decision approach, the text also examines and critiques the limitations of the objective, classical approach.

Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory

Schlaifer, Robert

Pratt, John W.

Mit Pr

The Bayesian revolution in statistics―where statistics is integrated with decision making in areas such as management, public policy, engineering, and clinical medicine―is here to stay. Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory states the case and in a self-contained, comprehensive way shows how the approach is operational and relevant for real-world decision making under uncertainty.
Starting with an extensive account of the foundations of decision theory, the authors develop the intertwining concepts of subjective probability and utility. They then systematically and comprehensively examine the Bernoulli, Poisson, and Normal (univariate and multivariate) data generating processes. For each process they consider how prior judgments about the uncertain parameters of the process are modified given the results of statistical sampling, and they investigate typical decision problems in which the main sources of uncertainty are the population parameters. They also discuss the value of sampling information and optimal sample sizes given sampling costs and the economics of the terminal decision problems.
Unlike most introductory texts in statistics, Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory integrates statistical inference with decision making and discusses real-world actions involving economic payoffs and risks. After developing the rationale and demonstrating the power and relevance of the subjective, decision approach, the text also examines and critiques the limitations of the objective, classical approach.

Literature & Fiction

PRATT, JOHN

Dramas & Plays

The MIT Press

Applied Statistical Decision Theory

"In the field of statistical decision theory, Raiffa and Schlaifer have sought to develop new analytic techniques by which the modern theory of utility and subjective probability can actually be applied to the economic analysis of typical sampling problems." ―From the foreword to their classic work Applied Statistical Decision Theory. First published in the 1960s through Harvard University and MIT Press, the book is now offered in a new paperback edition from Wiley

Science & Math

Mathematics

Wiley-Interscience

Optimal Statistical DecisionsThis book provides a thorough discussion in the theory and methodology of optimal statistical decisions. The volume represents a landmark. It still remains the clearest introduction to Bayesian statistical decision theory even in, this, a paperback reprint of the original book dating back to 1970 (under the aegis of McGraw Hill, Inc.). While the content does not include the computational advances that have become so popular and well used today, neither does it neglect what purposes are served by those computations. DeGroot’s book, with its clear exposition of Bayesian principles, is useful to keep those purposes in mind. Of particular note is the fact that Bayesian and sequential decision problems are explained from the bottom-up with great care and clarity. Bayesian Inference in Statistical AnalysisIts main objective is to examine the application and relevance of Bayes' theorem to problems that arise in scientific investigation in which inferences must be made regarding parameter values about which little is known a priori. Begins with a discussion of some important general aspects of the Bayesian approach such as the choice of prior distribution, particularly noninformative prior distribution, the problem of nuisance parameters and the role of sufficient statistics, followed by many standard problems concerned with the comparison of location and scale parameters. The main thrust is an investigation of questions with appropriate analysis of mathematical results which are illustrated with numerical examples, providing evidence of the value of the Bayesian approach. Applied Statistical Decision Theory"In the field of statistical decision theory, Raiffa and Schlaifer have sought to develop new analytic techniques by which the modern theory of utility and subjective probability can actually be applied to the economic analysis of typical sampling problems."—From the foreword to their classic work Applied Statistical Decision Theory. First published in the 1960s through Harvard University and MIT Press, the book is now offered in a new paperback edition from Wiley

Optimal Statistical Decision & Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis & Applied Statistical Decision Theory

DeGroot, Morris H.

Box, George E. P.

Tiao, George C.

wiley

Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve multiple conflicting objectives. This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing trade-offs between incommensurable objectives. The theory is illustrated by many real concrete examples taken from a host of disciplinary settings. The standard approach in decision theory or decision analysis specifies a simplified single objective like monetary return to maximise. By generalising from the single objective case to the multiple objective case, this book considerably widens the range of applicability of decision analysis.

Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs

Keeney, Ralph L.

Cambridge University Press

Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve multiple conflicting objectives. This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing trade-offs between incommensurable objectives. The theory is illustrated by many real concrete examples taken from a host of disciplinary settings. The standard approach in decision theory or decision analysis specifies a simplified single objective like monetary return to maximise. By generalising from the single objective case to the multiple objective case, this book considerably widens the range of applicability of decision analysis.

Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs

This masterly book substantially extends Howard Raiffa's earlier classic, The Art and Science of Negotiation. It does so by incorporating three additional supporting strands of inquiry: individual decision analysis, judgmental decision making, and game theory. Each strand is introduced and used in analyzing negotiations. 
The book starts by considering how analytically minded parties can generate joint gains and distribute them equitably by negotiating with full, open, truthful exchanges. The book then examines models that disengage step by step from that ideal. It also shows how a neutral outsider (intervenor) can help all negotiators by providing joint, neutral analysis of their problem.
Although analytical in its approach--building from simple hypothetical examples--the book can be understood by those with only a high school background in mathematics. It therefore will have a broad relevance for both the theory and practice of negotiation analysis as it is applied to disputes that range from those between family members, business partners, and business competitors to those involving labor and management, environmentalists and developers, and nations.

Negotiation Analysis: The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making

Belknap Press

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