As the 21st century unfold, the dynamics of population growth, settlement patterns, and movement across borders are certain to have an effect on international security. Demographic shifts in political environments that are already tense as a result of territorial disputes, ethnic rivalries, ideological divides, or environmental stresses may provide just enough pressure to spark a violent conflict or perhaps even outright war.

The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors

Nichiporuk, Brian

Business & Money

RAND Corporation

This monograph proposes adaptation of a RAND tool called Assumption-Based Planning to help Army personnel maintain proper alignment between strategic guidance and the Army acquisition program and budget. It uses this tool to create a model that recommends acquisition investments across a broad range of capabilities. The model works toward the goal of satisfying the complex and evolving requirements specified in the national security guidance.

A Methodology for Developing Army Acquisition Strategies for an Uncertain Future

History

Hanks, Christopher

Peters, John E.

Hynes, Michael V.

Held, Bruce

Military

Provides an analytic framework and procedure for the intelligence analysis of irregular warfare (IW) environments that can serve as the basis for IW intelligence curriculum development efforts. Defines IW in terms of two stylized situations: population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) and counterterrorism. Provides a detailed review of IW-relevant defense policy and strategy documents and a list of relevant doctrinal publications.

Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis

Szayna, Thomas S.

Larson, Eric V.

Eaton, Derek

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has evolved well beyond its origins as an ideological guard for the regime. Today, in addition to wielding military force, its influence extends into virtually every corner of Iranian political life and society. Wehrey et al. assess the IRGC less as a traditional military entity and more as a domestic actor, emphasizing the variety of roles it plays in Iran1s economy and political culture.

The Rise of the Pasdaran: Assessing the Domestic Roles of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps

Nader, Alireza

Green, Jerrold D.

Wehrey Carnegie Endowment for International Peace author of Sectarian Politics in, Frederic

Hansell, Lydia

Although irregular warfare includes a range of activities in which naval forces have played an integral role, there has been little examination of the characteristics or potential of such operations in maritime environments. An assessment of the maritime component of a series of historical and ongoing operations reveals that current notions of irregular warfare would benefit from increased recognition of potentialmaritime contributions.

Characterizing and Exploring the Implications of Maritime Irregular Warfare

DeLuca, Paul

Dunigan, Molly

Chalk, Peter

Hoffmann, Dick

Pakistan is already one of the most urbanized nations in South Asia, and a majority of its population is projected to be living in cities within three decades. This demographic shift is likely to have a significant impact on Pakistan’s politics and stability. This report briefly examines urbanization as a potential driver of long-term insecurity and instability, with particular attention to the cities of Karachi, Lahore, and Quetta.

Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization (National Defense Research Institute)

BLANK, Jonah

Clary, Christopher

Reference

This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia’s approach, draws inferences from Moscow’s intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere.

Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

Radin, Andrew

Kofman, Michael

Migacheva, Katya

Tkacheva, Olesya

Oberholtzer, Jenny

Americas

Maintaining the Competitive Advantage in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Computers & Technology

Scobell, Andrew

Curriden, Christian

Ablon, Lillian

Ma, Logan

Tarraf, Danielle C.

Waltzman, Rand

Hartnett, Gavin S.

Holliday, Maynard A.

Computer Science

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