Book by Balassa, Bela, Noland, Marcus

Japan in the World Economy

Business & Money

Noland, Marcus

Balassa, Bela

Economics

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Oil price volatility has been highly criticized on many fronts, from the top-level official to the average consumer. Authorities for both producing and consuming nations have called for mechanisms to restore order to a chaotic market.The author traces the development of petroleum commodity markets, then examines the quest by producers and consumers for stability in world oil markets. He finds that modest producer and consumer gains can be realized through negotiations that achieve removal of barriers to trade, elimination of hurdles to foreign investment, and strengthening of financial institutions.Verleger reviews previous attempts to stabilize price fluctuations of other commodities and finds that these efforts have invariably failed. He argues that the very size of the oil market makes it unlikely that an effort to stabilize oil prices would succeed. Moreover, he shows that an oil price stabilization agreement would impose large costs on consumers.

Adjusting to Volatile Energy Prices (Policy Analyses in International Economics)

Verleger Jr., Philip

Industries

The problems of exchange rate misalignments and the resulting payments imbalances have plagued the world economy for decades. At the Louvre Accord of 1987, the Group of Five industrial countries adopted a system of reference ranges for exchange rate management, influenced by proposals of C. Fred Bergstan and John Williamson for a target zone system. The reference range approach has, however, been operated only intermittently and half-heartedly, and questions continue to be raised in policy and scholarly circles about the design and operation of a full-fledged target zone regime. This volume, with chapters by leading international economists, explores one crucial issue in the design of a target zone system: the problem of calculating Williamson's concept of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER). Williamson contributes an overview of the policy and analytic issues and a second chapter on his own calculations.

Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates

The international debt crisis that erupted in 1982 threatened the world financial system and turned the 1980s into a lost decade for Latin America. But the crisis jolted governments throughout the region into adopting sweeping economic reforms. By the early 1990s inflation was lower, growth was reviving, the major debtors had reached "Brady Plan" workout agreements reducing bank debt in exchange for collateral, and capital was entering the region in unprecedented magnitudes. This study tries to make sense of this historic financial episode and to derive lessons for future policy. Cline first returns to his 1983 projection models that figured importantly in the debate at that time, and reruns them with the benefit of hindsight to see what went wrong (e.g., capital flight) and what went right (e.g., revival of industrial country growth). He provides a critical survey of the voluminous economics literature that emerged from the debt crisis. The study evaluates performance of the evolving international debt strategy, which eventually succeeded brilliantly in preserving international financial stability and restoring debtor access to credit markets but failed to achieve debtor country growth in the 1980s. The study reviews policy reform and Brady plan results for major Latin American countries; provides new analysis of today's debt problems in Russia and Africa; and analyzes the degree of vulnerability of Latin Americas capital market renaissance to such factors as overvalued exchange rates and a resurgence of US interest rates. It concludes with suggestions for institutional change and policy guidelines to help avoid future crises.

International Debt Reexamined

Cline, William

Should the United States use retaliatory threats to open foreign markets or deter unfair trading practices? This study reexamines the arguments for and against reciprocity and retaliatory threats in light of actual experience since early 1975, especially the United States' aggressive use of the section 301, special 301, and super 301 provisions of US trade law, which gives the president broad authority to retaliate against "unjustifiable, unreasonable, or discriminatory" foreign trade practices. It analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of these policies and the circumstances under which they are likely to succeed or fail.

Reciprocity and Retaliation in U.S. Trade Policy (Institute for International Economics)

Elliott, Kimberly Ann

Bayard, Thomas

International

This study proposes a new initiative involving the cancellation of concessional rescheduling of public bilateral debt of reforming African countries through a new international mechanism that would replace existing ones such as the Paris Club and the World Bank Consultative Groups. Each of a series of Adjustment Review Consortia would bring together representatives of donor and creditor governments international aid and development agencies, and an African government to coordinate debt relief, aid, and reform initiatives. Properly implements, ARCs would contribute to building a system in which economic need and performance, not political favoritism, play the principal roles in how debt and external financing in general are managed.

African Economic Reform: The External Dimension (POLICY ANALYSES IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS)

Lancaster, Carol

Managing the Dollar, published four years after the Plaza Agreement took place, was the initial analysis of lessons learned and takeaways from the finance ministers' policy efforts in 1985. Based largely on interviews, immediate analysis illuminates the forces at play and the differences of opinions among the policymakers and how collaborative economic integration can be improved. The piece is being republished to celebrate the 30-year anniversary of the accord and as a companion to a new long-term retrospective.

Managing the Dollar: From the Plaza to the Louvre

Funabashi, Yoichi

How much impact on exchange rates do central banks have when they buy and sell currencies? According to many analysts, such intervention has no independent impact. This book challenges the conventional wisdom, demonstrating that such intervention can be an effective and extremely important tool for policymakers. Using previously unavailable daily intervention data from the US Federal Reserve and German Bundesbank, the authors show that even "sterilized" intervention -intervention that entails no corresponding changes in monetary policy- has a significant effect. A key element is whether the intervention is known to the public: widespread market awareness of the activity adds substantially to its payoff. Authors Dominguez and Frankel draw implications for intervention policy and its role in international economic policy coordination.

Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?

Frankel, Jeffrey

Dominguez, Kathryn

This study seeks to resolve the "free trade vs. managed trade" debate. It provides innovative recommendations for US policy based on detailed and rigorous case studies of high-technology trade conflicts between the United States, Japan and Europe in aircraft, telecommunications, electronics and supercomputers.The study addresses three key issues: What trade policy should the United States adopt to support its high-technology industries? What domestic policy initiatives are necessary to realize this goal? Are new international rules needed to reduce trade conflicts over high-technology industries? Tyson, formerly Chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, develops a "cautious activist" policy agenda to promote US competitiveness in high-technology sectors and to strengthen international rules to encourage trade and reduce conflicts among nations.

Who's Bashing Whom?: Trade Conflict in High Technology Industries

Tyson, Laura D'Andrea

This comprehensive study finds that tariffs and quantitative import restrictions in place in 1990 cost American consumers about $70 billion, more than 1 percent of GDP. The net national welfare loss, after deducting tariff revenues and transfers to domestic producers, was $11 billion, of which perhaps 70 percent was captured by foreign producers as quota rents. Nearly half of the consumer costs are accounted for by 21 highly protected sectors, and more than a third, $24 billion, are attributable to textiles and apparel alone. The cost to consumers of "special" protection aside from textiles and apparel dropped sharply in the 1980s, from $15 billion in 1984 to $6 billion in 1990. If it is ratified, the Uruguay Round will result in a further large reduction in these costs, particularly in textiles and apparel. Still, the annual consumer costs per American job "saved" by "special" protection range from $100,000 to over $1 million and average $170,000. Consumers thus pay over six times the average annual compensation of manufacturing workers to preserve each job. In terms of net national welfare, the cost per protected job is about $54,000. This figure far exceeds the cost per worker of the most generous adjustment program entailing income support, retraining, and relocation. This study will be indispensable to public and private sector decision makers and analysts concerned about the very high costs and small benefits of US import barriers. Teachers will find this book an engrossing way to introduce students to the cost of protection calculations that government economists and trade negotiators frequently make.

Measuring the Costs of Protection in the United States

Hufbauer, Gary Clyde

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Books by Peterson Institute for International Economics