This book was undertaken at a pivotal time in the region. The weak summer monsoon in 2009 created drought conditions throughout Pakistan. This followed an already tenuous situation for many rural households faced with high fuel and fertilizer costs and the impacts of rising global food prices. Then catastrophic monsoon flooding in 2010 affected over 20 million people, devastating their housing, infrastructure, and crops. Damages from this single flood event were estimated at US$10 billion, half of which were losses in the agriculture sector. Notwithstanding the debate as to whether these observed extremes are evidence of climate change, an investigation is needed regarding the extent to which the country is resilient to these shocks. It is thus timely, if not critical, to focus on climate risks for water, agriculture, and food security in the Indus Basin in Pakistan. This study uses several different modeling environments including hydrologic models, an agro-economic optimization model of the irrigation system, and a computable general equilibrium model of the Pakistan economy. The models used here are among the best mathematical representations available of the physical and economic responses to these exogenous future climate risks. The integrated systems framework used in this analysis provides a broad and unique approach to estimating the hydrologic and crop impacts of climate change risks, the macro-economic and household-level responses and an effective method for assessing a variety of adaptation investments and policies. A better understanding of how these sectors are linked will help plan future investments in these sectors. Further collection and analysis of critical input and output observations (e.g. snow and ice data) as well as practical measures for improving productivity under a changing climate will enhance this integrated framework methodology and future climate impact assessments. Continued refinements to the assessment approach developed in this volume will further help to sharpen critical policies and interventions by the Pakistan government.

The Indus Basin of Pakistan: The Impacts of Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture (Directions in Development - Countries and Regions)

Business & Money

Brown, Casey

Robinson, Sherman

Yu, Winston

Yang, Yi-Chen

Savitsky, Andre

Alford, Donald

Wescoat, James

Debowicz, Dario

Economics

World Bank Publications

Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh (Earthscan Climate)

Managing climate variability and change remains a key development and food security issue in Bangladesh. Despite significant investments, floods, droughts, and cyclones during the last two decades continue to cause extensive economic damage and impair livelihoods. Climate change will pose additional risks to ongoing efforts to reduce poverty. This book examines the implications of climate change on food security in Bangladesh and identifies adaptation measures in the agriculture sector using a comprehensive integrated framework. First, the most recent science available is used to characterize current climate and hydrology and its potential changes. Second, country-specific survey and biophysical data is used to derive more realistic and accurate agricultural impact functions and simulations. A range of climate risks (i.e. warmer temperatures, higher carbon dioxide concentrations, changing characteristics of floods, droughts and potential sea level rise) is considered to gain a more complete picture of potential agriculture impacts. Third, while estimating changes in production is important, economic responses may to some degree buffer against the physical losses predicted, and an assessment is made of these. Food security is dependent not only on production, but also future food requirements, income levels and commodity prices. Finally, adaptation possibilities are identified for the sector. This book is the first to combine these multiple disciplines and analytical procedures to comprehensively address these impacts. The framework will serve as a useful guide to design policy intervention strategies and investments in adaptation measures.

Alam, Mozaharul

Hassan, Ahmadul

Khan, Abu Saleh

Ruane, Alex

Rosenzweig, Cynthia

MAJOR, DAVID

Thurlow, James

Reference

Routledge

The Republic of Armenia is facing a number of emerging challenges in the water sector. Though overall water resource availability in the country is good, the country’s ability to monitor groundwater and surface water is deteriorating, enforcement under the existing water permit system is weak, conflicts loom over water use in the agriculturally important Ararat valley, and climate change continues to exert pressure. The performance of the irrigation, hydropower, municipal, industrial, and environment sectors depends on the judicious and coordinated wise use of the country’s water resources. Recognizing the importance of integrated water resources management (IWRM), the government of Armenia has introduced over the last decade major institutional and policy reforms. These reforms provide a strong legislative foundation and framework for ensuring good management and development of water resources in the country. Despite this, further institutional strengthening is needed to fulfill the vision of this legislative framework. Toward Integrated Water Resources Management in Armenia identifies the challenges in the different water subsectors, reviews the current institutional framework and implementation of relevant water-sector policies, and makes recommendations for the next steps to strengthen water resources management in the country. The book’s overall goal is to provide guidance to the government and to donors to help enhance Armenia’s future water security.

Toward Integrated Water Resources Management in Armenia (Directions in Development - Countries and Regions)

Cestti, Rita E.

Lee, Ju Young

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