Is it sensible to screen for breast or prostate cancer? Should the locations of cancer clusters be made available to the general public? When a doctor wants to perform major surgery and there's no chance for a second opinion, do you agree? The answers to these questions are not as black and white as they may first appear. Medical Illuminations presents thirteen contemporary medical topics, from the diminishing value of mammograms to how to decide if a hip needs to be replaced, to understanding cancer maps. In each case it illustrates how modern tools of statistical thinking and statistical graphics can illuminate our understanding. The goals are to solve some vexing problems that seem perplexing, and to make both the problems and their solutions clear to a non-technical audience. The aim is to ignite in the reader an understanding of statistical thinking, which, though subtle, can be learned without going through arcane mathematics. And, moreover, that learning about how to think in this way provides a huge payoff in the deeper understanding of our complex world.

Medical Illuminations: Using Evidence, Visualization and Statistical Thinking to Improve Healthcare

Science & Math

Wainer, Howard

Biological Sciences

Oxford University Press

Testlet Response Theory and Its Applications

The measurement models employed to score tests have been evolving over the past century from those that focus on the entire test (true score theory) to models that focus on individual test items (item response theory) to models that use small groups of items (testlets) as the fungible unit from which tests are constructed and scored (testlet response theory, or TRT). In this book, the inventors of TRT trace the history of this evolution and explain the character of modern TRT. Written for researchers and professionals in statistics, psychometrics, and educational psychology, the first part offers an accessible introduction to TRT and its applications. The second part presents a comprehensive, self-contained discussion of the model couched within a fully Bayesian framework. Its parameters are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures, and the resulting posterior distributions of the parameter estimates yield insights into score stability that were previously unsuspected.

Bradlow, Eric T.

Wang, Xiaohui

Mathematics

Cambridge University Press

A comprehensive history of data visualization--its origins, rise, and effects on the ways we think about and solve problems. With complex information everywhere, graphics have become indispensable to our daily lives. Navigation apps show real-time, interactive traffic data. A color-coded map of exit polls details election balloting down to the county level. Charts communicate stock market trends, government spending, and the dangers of epidemics. A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication tells the story of how graphics left the exclusive confines of scientific research and became ubiquitous. As data visualization spread, it changed the way we think. Michael Friendly and Howard Wainer take us back to the beginnings of graphic communication in the mid-seventeenth century, when the Dutch cartographer Michael Florent van Langren created the first chart of statistical data, which showed estimates of the distance from Rome to Toledo. By 1786 William Playfair had invented the line graph and bar chart to explain trade imports and exports. In the nineteenth century, the "golden age" of data display, graphics found new uses in tracking disease outbreaks and understanding social issues. Friendly and Wainer make the case that the explosion in graphical communication both reinforced and was advanced by a cognitive revolution: visual thinking. Across disciplines, people realized that information could be conveyed more effectively by visual displays than by words or tables of numbers. Through stories and illustrations, A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication details the 400-year evolution of an intellectual framework that has become essential to both science and society at large.

A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication

Computers & Technology

Friendly, Michael

Programming

Harvard University Press

Good graphs make complex problems clear. From the weather forecast to the Dow Jones average, graphs are so ubiquitous today that it is hard to imagine a world without them. Yet they are a modern invention. This book is the first to comprehensively plot humankind's fascinating efforts to visualize data, from a key seventeenth-century precursor--England's plague-driven initiative to register vital statistics--right up to the latest advances. In a highly readable, richly illustrated story of invention and inventor that mixes science and politics, intrigue and scandal, revolution and shopping, Howard Wainer validates Thoreau's observation that circumstantial evidence can be quite convincing, as when you find a trout in the milk.
 The story really begins with the eighteenth-century origins of the art, logic, and methods of data display, which emerged, full-grown, in William Playfair's landmark 1786 trade atlas of England and Wales. The remarkable Scot singlehandedly popularized the atheoretical plotting of data to reveal suggestive patterns--an achievement that foretold the graphic explosion of the nineteenth century, with atlases published across the observational sciences as the language of science moved from words to pictures.
 Next come succinct chapters illustrating the uses and abuses of this marvelous invention more recently, from a murder trial in Connecticut to the Vietnam War's effect on college admissions. Finally Wainer examines the great twentieth-century polymath John Wilder Tukey's vision of future graphic displays and the resultant methods--methods poised to help us make sense of the torrent of data in our information-laden world.

Graphic Discovery: A Trout in the Milk and Other Visual Adventures

History

Princeton University Press

In his entertaining and informative book Graphic Discovery, Howard Wainer unlocked the power of graphical display to make complex problems clear. Now he's back with Picturing the Uncertain World, a book that explores how graphs can serve as maps to guide us when the information we have is ambiguous or incomplete. Using a visually diverse sampling of graphical display, from heartrending autobiographical displays of genocide in the Kovno ghetto to the "Pie Chart of Mystery" in a New Yorker cartoon, Wainer illustrates the many ways graphs can be used--and misused--as we try to make sense of an uncertain world.
Picturing the Uncertain World takes readers on an extraordinary graphical adventure, revealing how the visual communication of data offers answers to vexing questions yet also highlights the measure of uncertainty in almost everything we do. Are cancer rates higher or lower in rural communities? How can you know how much money to sock away for retirement when you don't know when you'll die? And where exactly did nineteenth-century novelists get their ideas? These are some of the fascinating questions Wainer invites readers to consider. Along the way he traces the origins and development of graphical display, from William Playfair, who pioneered the use of graphs in the eighteenth century, to instances today where the public has been misled through poorly designed graphs.
 We live in a world full of uncertainty, yet it is within our grasp to take its measure. Read Picturing the Uncertain World and learn how.

Picturing the Uncertain World: How to Understand, Communicate, and Control Uncertainty through Graphical Display

Business & Money

Economics

Uneducated Guesses challenges everything our policymakers thought they knew about education and education reform, from how to close the achievement gap in public schools to admission standards for top universities. In this explosive book, Howard Wainer uses statistical evidence to show why some of the most widely held beliefs in education today--and the policies that have resulted--are wrong. He shows why colleges that make the SAT optional for applicants end up with underperforming students and inflated national rankings, and why the push to substitute achievement tests for aptitude tests makes no sense. Wainer challenges the thinking behind the enormous rise of advanced placement courses in high schools, and demonstrates why assessing teachers based on how well their students perform on tests--a central pillar of recent education reforms--is woefully misguided. He explains why college rankings are often lacking in hard evidence, why essay questions on tests disadvantage women, why the most grievous errors in education testing are not made by testing organizations--and much more.
 No one concerned about seeing our children achieve their full potential can afford to ignore this book. With forceful storytelling, wry insight, and a wealth of real-world examples, Uneducated Guesses exposes today's educational policies to the light of empirical evidence, and offers solutions for fairer and more viable future policies.

Uneducated Guesses: Using Evidence to Uncover Misguided Education Policies

Politics & Social Sciences

Sociology

History & Philosophy

Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) is now entering a new phase of its existence, having developed into a viable alternative form of measurement backed by rigorous technology involving far more than hardware and software. Computer technology, test development, statistics, and mental test theory all play a role in CAT and are thus united in this primer.  Based on 30 years of solid research, this book will educate the novice and serve as a compendium of state-of-the-art data for professionals. A hypothetical test taken as a prelude to employment, the "Gedanken Computerized Adaptive Test," is used throughout as a common example that highlights important features and problems presented by different types of computerized testing.

Computerized Adaptive Testing: A Primer

Health, Fitness & Dieting

Mislevy, Robert J.

Dorans, Neil J.

Flaugher, Ronald

Green, Bert F.

Mental Health

Routledge

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Books by Wainer, Howard