Like Jared Diamond in Guns, Germs, and Steel, Peter Turchin in War and Peace and War uses his expertise in evolutionary biology to make a highly original argument about the rise and fall of empires.
 Turchin argues that the key to the formation of an empire is a society's capacity for collective action. He demonstrates that high levels of cooperation are found where people have to band together to fight off a common enemy, and that this kind of cooperation led to the formation of the Roman and Russian empires, and the United States. But as empires grow, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, conflict replaces cooperation, and dissolution inevitably follows. Eloquently argued and rich with historical examples, War and Peace and War offers a bold new theory about the course of world history.

War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations

Turchin, Peter

Science & Math

Pi Press

In War and Peace and War, Peter Turchin uses his expertise in evolutionary biology to offer a bold new theory about the course of world history. 
Turchin argues that the key to the formation of an empire is a society’s capacity for collective action. He demonstrates that high levels of cooperation are found where people have to band together to fight off a common enemy, and that this kind of cooperation led to the formation of the Roman and Russian empires, and the United States. But as empires grow, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, conflict replaces cooperation, and dissolution inevitably follows. Eloquently argued and rich with historical examples, War and Peace and War offers a bold new theory about the course of world history with implications for nations today.

War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires

History

Military

Plume

From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the groundbreaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a big-picture explanation for America's civil strife and its possible endgames Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for more than a quarter century. End Times is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States.&nbsp; Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why. The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it's a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin's models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit. In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. As cliodynamics shows us, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture.&nbsp; That is only one possible end time, and the choice is up to us, but the hour grows late.

End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration

Politics & Social Sciences

Philosophy

Penguin Press

Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (Monographs in Population Biology, 35)

Why do organisms become extremely abundant one year and then seem to disappear a few years later? Why do population outbreaks in particular species happen more or less regularly in certain locations, but only irregularly (or never at all) in other locations? Complex population dynamics have fascinated biologists for decades. By bringing together mathematical models, statistical analyses, and field experiments, this book offers a comprehensive new synthesis of the theory of population oscillations.
 Peter Turchin first reviews the conceptual tools that ecologists use to investigate population oscillations, introducing population modeling and the statistical analysis of time series data. He then provides an in-depth discussion of several case studies--including the larch budmoth, southern pine beetle, red grouse, voles and lemmings, snowshoe hare, and ungulates--to develop a new analysis of the mechanisms that drive population oscillations in nature. Through such work, the author argues, ecologists can develop general laws of population dynamics that will help turn ecology into a truly quantitative and predictive science.
 Complex Population Dynamics integrates theoretical and empirical studies into a major new synthesis of current knowledge about population dynamics. It is also a pioneering work that sets the course for ecology's future as a predictive science.

Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (MPB-35) (Monographs in Population Biology, 35)

Biological Sciences

Princeton University Press

Why do organisms become extremely abundant one year and then seem to disappear a few years later? Why do population outbreaks in particular species happen more or less regularly in certain locations, but only irregularly (or never at all) in other locations? Complex population dynamics have fascinated biologists for decades. By bringing together mathematical models, statistical analyses, and field experiments, this book offers a comprehensive new synthesis of the theory of population oscillations.
 Peter Turchin first reviews the conceptual tools that ecologists use to investigate population oscillations, introducing population modeling and the statistical analysis of time series data. He then provides an in-depth discussion of several case studies--including the larch budmoth, southern pine beetle, red grouse, voles and lemmings, snowshoe hare, and ungulates--to develop a new analysis of the mechanisms that drive population oscillations in nature. Through such work, the author argues, ecologists can develop general laws of population dynamics that will help turn ecology into a truly quantitative and predictive science.
 Complex Population Dynamics integrates theoretical and empirical studies into a major new synthesis of current knowledge about population dynamics. It is also a pioneering work that sets the course for ecology's future as a predictive science.

Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history.
 Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.

Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton Studies in Complexity)

Historical Study & Educational Resources

Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles.
 Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications.
 An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.

Secular Cycles

Business & Money

Nefedov, Sergey A.

Economics

Describes and systematizes quantitative methods for analyzing and modeling movement in an ecological context. Written for researchers and students (with calculus and elementary differential equations background) who are interested in spatial ecology in connection with conservation biology, pest control, or fisheries. Case studies cover a wide range of organisms including plants (seed dispersal, spatial spread of clonal plants), many kinds of insects, and vertebrates. Annotation c. by Book News, Inc., Portland, Or.

Quantitative Analysis of Movement: Measuring and Modeling Population Redistribution in Animals and Plants

Sinauer Associates, Inc.

From the Back Cover: “Peter Turchin's book is a classic in movement ecology and an authoritative synthesis that has retained its value over the years. What makes this book so special is the author's expertise in both field biology and theoretical ecology—the text is insightful in both directions. This is your best entry to the quantitative study of plant and animal movements.” —Ilkka Hanski, University of Helsinki “The study of animal movement is one of the most exciting and salient areas of conservation biology and ecology. While data and theory have advanced enormously in the last twenty years, Peter Turchin's book is still the best place to go for one point of entry into quantitative approaches to movement and dispersal modeling. It still has no rivals.” —Peter Kareiva, the Nature Conservancy “This book stands out for presenting a perspective that merges general theoretical models with approaches to estimating parameters from data. It continues to be a classic in the field.” —Elizabeth Crone, Tufts University “If you are engaged in research exploring plant and animal movement, this book is essential. It is well written and informative from both practical and theoretical perspectives. It is a delight to have this reference. I recommend it wholeheartedly.” —Steven L. Peck, Ecology Book Description The spatial dimension—the interplay between environmental heterogeneity and individual movement—is an extremely important aspect of ecological dynamics. Ecologists are investing an enormous amount of effort in quantifying movement patterns of organisms. Connecting these data to general issues in metapopulation biology and landscape ecology, as well as to applied questions in conservation and natural resource management, however, is not a trivial task. One of the main impediments to a theoretical/empirical synthesis in the field of spatial ecology is a lack of a single source describing and systematizing quantitative methods for analyzing and modeling movement of organisms in the field. The goal of Quantitative Analysis of Movement is to provide such a source for empirical ecologists interested in quantifying movement in an ecological context. But the book goes beyond a simple compendium of existing approaches. It presents a general and coherent framework for studying and modeling movement that melds together individual-based simulations, reaction-diffusion models, and empirical curve-fitting approaches. The quantitative approaches discussed in the book are extensively illustrated with case studies selected from a wide variety of organisms, including plants (seed dispersal, spatial spread of clonal plants), many kinds of insects (such as butterflies, beetles, and ants), and vertebrates (fish, birds, and mammals). This book is aimed at active researchers and graduate students working in spatial ecology, including applications in conservation biology, pest control, and fisheries. Because analysis of movement patterns has to be approached with an explicit model, the text contains a significant mathematical component. However, all efforts have been made to make it not too intimidating to an empirical ecologist. In chapters directly focusing on data analysis mathematical details have been either placed in boxes or banished to the appendix. In addition, the appendix provides a popular account of the mathematical aspects of diffusion and random walks, models that are of particular relevance to modeling ecological movement. In general, the exposition of mathematical ideas assumes that readers have studied calculus at the college level, although some exposure to differential equations would be helpful.

Beresta Books

See the best price to sell, buy, or rent books by Turchin, Peter. BookScouter helps to compare book prices from 25+ online bookstores and 30+ buyback vendors with a single search.

Books by Turchin, Peter

See the best price to sell, buy, or rent books by Turchin, Peter. BookScouter helps to compare book prices from 25+ online bookstores and 30+ buyback vendors with a single search.

War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations

War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires

End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration

Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (MPB-35) (Monographs in Population Biology, 35)

Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (Monographs in Population Biology, 35)

Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton Studies in Complexity)

Secular Cycles

Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton Studies in Complexity)

Quantitative Analysis of Movement: Measuring and Modeling Population Redistribution in Animals and Plants

Quantitative Analysis of Movement: Measuring and Modeling Population Redistribution in Animals and Plants