Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS :Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink “The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.” –Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999 “Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.” –Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving “Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.” –Michael Schrage, author of Serious How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate “We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.” –Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance “Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.”–National Review

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Business & Money

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Economics

Penguin Books, Ltd.

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', "The Black Swan" shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder

Investing

BOOKS ON TAPE]

Fooled by Randomness: the Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life

Science & Math

Mathematics

John Wiley&Sons, Inc.

Management & Leadership

Random House Trade Paperbacks

The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms

Politics & Social Sciences

Philosophy

Random House]

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

The Black Swan

History

Paperback. Pages Number: 366 Language: English. Publisher: Random House Group. Book Description In the author s point of view. a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and . after the fact. we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random. and more predictable. than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur Part of the answer. according to Taleb. is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don t know. We are. therefore. unable to truly estimate opportunities. too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify. narrate. and categorize. and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the imp...

Random House, Inc.

The Volatility Surface: A Practitioner's Guide

Jim Gatheral

wiley

Maverick thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb had an illustrious career on Wall Street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. With its revolutionary examination of the impact of highly improbable events, this New York Times bestseller took the world by storm. Not all swans are white, and not all events—no matter what the experts think—are predictable. Every so often, one of these unpredictable events occurs and has an immeasurable impact on the world—such as 9/11. Taleb argues the problem is that humans focus too much thought on what they already know, and not enough on what they don’t. The trick is understanding how to deal with black swans when they appear, and how to benefit from them.
Witty and irreverant, The Black Swan holds the power to change—for the better—the way people think about the world. It is unlike any book ever written, and its groundbreaking arguments are lucidly articulated by narrator David Chandler.

Black Swan, The

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Books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb