Human judgment and decision making: Theories, methods, and procedures

Business & Money

Hammond, Kenneth R.

Management & Leadership

Hemisphere Pub. Corp.

From the O.J. Simpson verdict to peace-making in the Balkans, the critical role of human judgement--complete with its failures, flaws, and successes--has never been more hotly debated and analyzed than it is today. This landmark work examines the dynamics of judgement and its impact on events that take place in human society, which require the direction and control of social policy. Research on social policy typically focuses on content. This book concentrates instead on the decision-making process itself. Drawing on 50 years of empirical research in decision theory, Hammond examines the possibilities for wisdom and cognitive competence in the formation of social policies, and applies these lessons to specific examples, such as the space shuttle Challenger disaster and the health care debate. Uncertainly, he tells us, can seldom be fully eliminated; thus error is inevitable, and injustice for some unavoidable. But the capacity for make wise judgments increases to the extent that we understand the potential pitfalls and their origin. The judgment process for example involves an ongoing rivalry between intuition and analysis, accuracy and rationality. The source of this tension requires an examination of the evolutionary roots of human judgement and how these fundamental features may be changing as our civilization increasingly becomes an information and knowledge-based society. With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author dramatizes the importance of judgment and its role in the formation of social policies which affect us all, and issues the first comprehensive examination of its underlying dynamics.

Human Judgment and Social Policy : Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable Injustice

Oxford University Press

Judgments Under Stress presents a new and exciting approach to understanding the effects of stressful conditions on judgment and decision making -- a topic so important it was addressed in a Congressional Hearing in 1988. Consisting mainly of two parts, the book synthesizes a vast body of cognitive psychology research into an innovative theoretical framework. Part I provides the reader with background in regards to judgment under stress while Part II discusses a new approach to studying it. Author Kenneth Hammond extends his examination from the effects of stress on professional judgments to its effects on moral and political judgments, working out a conceptual framework wholly within a psychological context. The book also includes discussions on sleep deprivation, fatigue, noise, heat, shock, and time pressure. In addition to laboratory experiments, Hammond looks at real life historical events such as Iran Flight 655 and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Judgments Under Stress provides a shrewd analysis of the effects of stress on human rationale, making it ideal for professional psychologists as well as for those interested in political science and social policy.

Judgments Under Stress

Health, Fitness & Dieting

Mental Health

Human Judgment and Social Policy: Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable Injustice

With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies. Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading.

Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time

Psychology & Counseling

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Books by Hammond, Kenneth R.