Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear. Dan Gardner

Politics & Social Sciences

Dan Gardner

Social Sciences

Virgin Books

Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway

Virgin Publishing

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everythng from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Future Babble: How to Stop Worrying and Love the Unpredictable

Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear

MCCLELLAND STEWART

How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration

Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant, new reality. Think of how Apple’s iPod went from a project with a single employee to an enormously successful product launch in eleven months. But they are the exception. Consider how London’s Crossrail project delivered five years late and billions overbudget. More modest endeavours, whether launching a small business, organizing a conference, or just finishing a work project on time, also commonly fail. Why?\nUnderstanding what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures has been the life’s work of Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg. In How Big Things Get Done , he identifies the errors that lead projects to fail, and the research-based principles that will make yours\n- Understand your odds. If you don't know them, you won't win. 
- Plan slow, act fast. Getting to the action quick feels right. But it's wrong. 
- Think right to left. Start with your goal, then identify the steps to get there. 
- Find your Lego. Big is best built from small. 
- Master the unknown unknowns. Most think they can't, so they fail. Flyvbjerg shows how you can.\nFull of vivid examples ranging from the building of the Sydney Opera House to the making of the latest Pixar blockbusters, How Big Things Get Done reveals how to get any ambitious project done — on time and on budget.

Bent Flyvbjerg

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Superforecasting

Business & Money

Philip E. Tetlock

Management & Leadership

Audible Studios on Brilliance Audio

What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?  Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.  In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project  an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions  has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.  In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit  whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.

Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction (Hardcover) (Chinese Edition)

CITIC Press Corporation

Please Note That The Following Individual Books As Per Original ISBN and Cover Image In this Listing shall be Dispatched Collectively:\nSuperforecasting, Algorithms to Live By, The Courage To Be Disliked 3 Books Collection Set:\nSuperforecasting: 
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.\nAlgorithms to Live By: 
In this dazzlingly interdisciplinary work, acclaimed author Brian Christian and cognitive scientist Tom Griffiths show us how the simple, precise algorithms used by computers can also untangle very human questions. Modern life is constrained by limited space and time, limits that give rise to a particular set of problems. What should we do, or leave undone, in a day or a lifetime? How much messiness should we accept? The authors explain how to have better hunches and when to leave things to chance, how to deal with overwhelming choices and how best to connect with others.\nThe Courage To Be Disliked: 
The Courage to be Disliked shows you how to unlock the power within yourself to become your best and truest self, change your future and find lasting happiness. Using the theories of Alfred Adler, one of the three giants of 19th century psychology alongside Freud and Jung, the authors explain how we are all free to determine our own future free of the shackles of past experiences, doubts and the expectations of others.

Superforecasting, Algorithms to Live By, The Courage To Be Disliked 3 Books Collection Set

Science & Math

Tom Griffiths

Fumitake, Koga

Behavioral Sciences

Random House Books/William Collins/Allen & Unwin

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Books by Dan Gardner