Since the Gulf War, Iraq has attempted to win through confrontation, diplomacy, and bluster what it could not achieve on the battlefield. Defense analyst Anthony Cordesman suggests that this war of sanctions may be a struggle that Iraq has begun to win. Saddam Hussein's regime remains aggressive and ambitious, and its military capabilities cannot be judged solely by the current state of Iraq's armed forces. Most dangerous of all is Iraq's continuing effort to build an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. Cordesman analyzes Iraqi strategic intentions and diplomatic opportunities, and assesses the options available to the international community to counter the Iraqi threat.
Iraq has effectively used diplomatic means to divide the United Nations and exploit Arab sympathies, while using its oil wealth as an incentive to win support for an easing of sanctions. The military potential of Iraq, and especially its development of weapons of mass destruction, must be considered as much for its intimidation value as for any actual utility in a possible war. A realistic assessment of Iraq's future capabilities, says Cordesman, must take into account these political and strategic factors as purely military considerations.

Iraq and the War of Sanctions: Conventional Threats and Weapons of Mass Destruction

History

Cordesman, Anthony H.

Middle East

Praeger

Iran today is still struggling with the legacy of its own Islamic revolution, and is deeply divided between the moderates who enjoy broad public support and the conservatives who control the levers of power. The mixed policies that result are reflected in Iran's ambivalent military posture. In recent years, Iran has only conducted a limited build-up of its armed forces and has cut defense spending and arms imports. On the other hand, Iran has developed a carefully focused program that threatens shipping in the lower Gulf and the world's oil exports. It has strengthened its capability for unconventional warfare and continues to be a significant proliferator, setting up indigenous military industries and developing a greater ability to import weapons. In this authoritative analysis of interest to Middle Eastern specialists and military affairs experts alike, Anthony Cordesman concludes that the continuation of Iran's current defensive security posture depends as much on these economic factors as on the outcomes of domestic political rivalries.Iran may eventually limit any military expansion to a necessary defensive strength and set strategic goals for itself that are compatible with the legitimate interests of other nations, or it may choose a more aggressive course. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, argues Cordesman, it does no good to either demonize or excuse Iranian policies. Instead, the United States and other nations with interests in the Middle East and Central Asia need to deal realistically with Iran as a reemerging regional power.

Iran's Military Forces in Transition: Conventional Threats and Weapons of Mass Destruction

The uncertain Arab-Israeli peace process has scarcely put an end to the threat of war in the Middle East. Israel's relations with its Arab neighbors remain tense, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is a problem for the entire region, and the Israeli-Palestinian fighting that began in September 2000 shows that the peace process can suddenly become a war process. Renowned Middle East military expert Anthony Cordesman provides up-to-the-minute analysis in this richly detailed guide to one of the most complicated, and dangerous, regions in the world.Cordesman covers every significant aspect of military and strategic issues in the region, including conventional forces, arms transfers, force quality and morale, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, the dynamics of specific ongoing conflicts, and the outcome of possible future conflicts. He carefully weighs the political factors against what is known about actual military capabilities to shed light on the range of strategic options likely to be considered by each of the major regional actors, including Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Palestinian Authority. He finds no easy answers, concluding that while the balance of conventional forces has stabilized significantly in recent years, the risks from unconventional warfare have escalated considerably and that any major new peace agreement is likely to unleash a whole new set of military concerns that have the potential to disrupt diplomatic agreements. Always mindful of the complexities of the region, Peace and War is the definitive guide to strategic developments in this vital part of the world.

Peace and War: The Arab-Israeli Military Balance Enters the 21st Century

The conclusion of a war typically signals the beginning of a flood of memoirs and instant campaign histories, many presenting the purported, but often dubious lessons of the recent conflict. Cordesman is careful to avoid such pitfalls in this detailed and closely reasoned analysis, and helps us to begin to understand the implications of this dramatic conflict on its own terms. Based on a combination of official and unofficial (but always authoritative) sources, he builds a thorough case for the true lessons of NATO's first battle fought within Europe.
After consideration of the historical, major political, and strategic factors that set the stage for the Kosovo campaign, Cordesman critically examines the actual effectiveness of the NATO air campaigns, both in Kosovo and Serbia proper. Operations in this rugged part of Europe were difficult, and compounding the challenges of terrain and weather were the conflicting national agendas within the Allied coalition that seriously hampered focused and decisive action by NATO. Although Milosevic ultimately conceded defeat, all of these factors played an important role in limiting the intensity and shaping the military outcome of the campaign, and the likely political and strategic results were far from certain. Cordesman unflinchingly concludes, that the air campaign over Kosovo exposed deep fault lines within and among the NATO countries and fundamental flaws in the way the West wages war.

The Lessons and Non-Lessons of the Air and Missile Campaign in Kosovo

Europe

Proliferation poses a broad range of threats to the United States, as well as to our allies and coalition partners. Intercontinental missiles armed with weapons of mass destruction are one of these threats, and it has become obvious that rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea may be acquiring the capability to build such missiles as well as the ability to arm them with nuclear or lethal biological weapons. While such threats are now only potential ones, these shifts in technological and manufacturing capability mean that these rogue nations may be able to pose serious dangers to the American homeland, possibly as early as during the next five years. Cordesman argues that an effective defense against these threats will require linking an effective national missile defense program to an ambitious counterproliferation strategy, a strengthened homeland defense program, and a realistic approach to arms control and national security options.
Cordesman argues that these threats may create a near- to mid-term need for national missile defense (NMD), widely discussed during the Clinton Administration and which seems to be emerging as a priority for the Bush Administration. This work analyzes the options available to the United States and how they relate to the delicate balance of deterrence in the post-Cold War era. As the debate on NMD escalates, this work could not be more timely.

Strategic Threats and National Missile Defenses: Defending the U.S. Homeland (Praeger Security International)

Engineering & Transportation

Engineering

There is a wide spectrum of potential threats to the U.S. homeland that do not involve overt attacks by states using long-range missiles or conventional military forces. Such threats include covert attacks by state actors, state use of proxies, independent terrorist and extremist attacks by foreign groups or individuals, and independent terrorist and extremist attacks by residents of the United States. These threats are currently limited in scope and frequency, but are emerging as potentially significant issues for future U.S. security. In this comprehensive work, Cordesman argues that new threats require new thinking, and offers a range of recommendations, from expanding the understanding of what constitutes a threat and bolstering Homeland defense measures, to bettering resource allocation and improving intelligence gathering and analysis.
No pattern of actual attacks on U.S. territory has yet emerged that provides a clear basis for predicting how serious any given form of attack might be in the future, what means of attack might be used, or how lethal new forms of attack might be. As a result, there is a major ongoing debate over the seriousness of the threat and how the U.S. government should react. This work is an invaluable contribution to that debate.

Terrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Defending the U.S. Homeland (Praeger Security International)

Americas

With the continuing importance of Saudi Arabia in regional and world politics, the current and future effectiveness of the Saudi military carries increased significance. Despite recent strains in relations with the U.S., particularly in light of the role Saudis played in the events of September 11, 2001, the Kingdom remains America's key Arab ally. Cordesman studies the challenges faced by the Saudis from both their allies and their potential enemies to assess Saudi Arabia's ability to forge a better approach to collective security in the Gulf and to create more stable long-term security arrangements with the U.S. and other Western Powers.
This assessment of Saudi Arabia's strategic position includes a full-scale analysis of Saudi military forces, defense expenditures, arms imports, military modernization, readiness and war fighting capability. It examines both the cooperation and tension with other Southern Gulf States. It explores the implications of the conventional military build-up and creeping proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Gulf and the resulting changes in Saudi Arabia's security position. All of these factors have critical implications for stability within the Kingdom, within the Gulf, as well as in the broader global context.

Saudi Arabia Enters the Twenty-First Century: The Military and International Security Dimensions

Military

As the world carefully monitors tensions in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia increasingly finds itself the center of political scrutiny in both its internal and external relations. With its military capabilities largely dependent upon the United States and other Western forces, Saudi Arabia cannot concentrate on internal change at the expense of external security. This study looks beyond a narrow definition of political stability to examine the implications of Saudi Arabia's changes in external relations with Iran and Iraq, as well as its cooperation with the other Southern Gulf States. Cordesman explores the issue of succession in the Royal Family, the immediate political probabilities, and the generational changes that are occurring.
Growing uncertainties in the world energy market continue to impact nearly every facet of the Saudi economy. Saudi Arabia faces ongoing demographic problems, as well as a need to diversify and restructure its economy. The Kingdom must find a way to adapt its traditional culture, religious customs, education, and political structure to the needs of a modern nation. Such change will come neither quickly nor easily. And with King Fahd's health in question and Crown Prince Abdullah already in his mid-seventies, major questions remain as to how the regime's future will ultimately affect the delicate balance in the entire region.

Saudi Arabia Enters the Twenty-First Century: The Political, Foreign Policy, Economic, and Energy Dimensions

Politics & Social Sciences

Social Sciences

With the eyes of the world carefully monitoring tensions in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has increasingly found itself at the center of political scrutiny in its internal and external relations. With its military capabilities largely dependent upon the United States and other Western forces, Saudi Arabia cannot concentrate on internal change at the expense of external security. At the same time, growing uncertainties in the world energy market continue to have an impact upon nearly every facet of the Saudi economy. With King Fahd's health in question, and Crown Prince Abdullah already in his mid-seventies, the world ponders how future changes in the regime will affect the delicate balance in the region.
This study looks beyond a narrow definition of political stability to examine the implications of the changes in Saudi external relations with Iran and Iraq, as well as cooperation with the other Southern Gulf States. It explores the succession issue in the Royal Family, the immediate political probabilities, and the generational changes that are occurring. Saudi Arabia faces ongoing demographic problems, as well as the need to diversify and restructure its economy. The Kingdom must find a way to adapt its traditional culture, religious customs, education, and political structure to the needs of a modern nation. Such change will come neither quickly nor easily.

Saudi Arabia Enters the Twenty-First Century [2 volumes]: 2 volumes

Business & Money

Economics

In the spring of 2003, a stunned world watched the armed forces of the United States and Britain conduct a military campaign against Iraq. As a result, the Iraqi regime was dismantled, and much of the conventional wisdom about modern war was irrevocably altered. Yet as U.S. and British forces occupy Basra, Tikrit, and Mosul, the Iraqi nation has slipped into anarchy―and the phrase shock and awe has begun to sound more appropriate as a description of the war's aftermath, rather than its opening. Such has been the twisted trail of the Iraq War's dramatic events. But like so many other conflicts, the war ultimately seems to pose more questions than it solved. This book is the first in-depth analysis of the second war against Saddam Hussein's regime.
What are the repercussions of the pre-war political fights in Washington, Paris, and the UN? Was meeting initial military goals really due to Anglo-American arms, or had Saddam's regime simply been too degraded to fight? Why didn't Baghdad become a second Stalingrad? Why weren't the occupying forces prepared to impose order? And then there is the significant question: Where are Iraq's weapons of mass destruction? Respected military analyst Anthony Cordesman incisively examines the key issues swirling around the most significant U.S. war since Vietnam. Beginning the search for answers is essential to understanding America's awesome power and its place in a new age of international terror and regional conflict.

The Iraq War: Strategy, Tactics, and Military Lessons

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