It has been nearly 10 years since a comprehensive study has been undertaken to fully assess the trends, processes, and implications of China’s arms exports. For a number of reasons the time is ripe for the present study to take up this subject. First, over the course of the 1990s, questions of Chinese arms proliferation emerged as a central problem in U.S.-China relations. Second, in spite of this valid continuing concern for U.S. interests, encouraging overall trends in Chinese arms exports principles and practices have resulted in more concrete Chinese unilateral, bilateral, and international commitments to stem its transfers of weapons and technologies on the one hand, coupled with market forces causing a steep overall decline in its major conventional weapons exports over the past 10 years on the other. Third, far more data, information, and documentation is available today from China on a host of questions relevant to this issue through access to officials, newspapers, policy documents, published regulations, and official statements. These sources—some of which are provided to a wider audience for the first time in this study—offer new insights into the players and process involved in Chinese arms export policy, China’s military-technical relationships abroad, the internal bureaucratic and institutional pressures bearing on arms transfers, the strengths and weaknesses of China’s export control system, and the extent to which Chinese decisionmakers have embraced international nonproliferation principles. Fourth, since late 1997 and early 1998, the Chinese arms production and arms export system has undergone a sweeping reorganization and restructuring process. While the basic outlines of this shake-up are discernible, its implications for future arms exports are less clear and require careful analysis. Finally, the upshot of these trends points to enduring and legitimate U.S. concerns over Chinese arms exports and proliferation activities. At the very least, this issue will remain a contentious one and will impede progress in the broader effort of the two countries to stabilize their relationship. In addition, in spite of a relative decline in its arms exports overall, China continues to provide sensitive weapons and technology to a range of recipients Washington views with concern: Iran, Myanmar (Burma), North Korea, Pakistan, and others. There is little doubt that China will employ these types of transfers as a form of leverage in its discussions with U.S. officials on other issues related to areas of concern for China, such as U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. More importantly, it remains highly likely that U.S. security interests and military forces overseas will continue to confront—both diplomatically and militarily—the challenge posed by Chinese weapons in sensitive regions across Asia and the Middle East. As a result, it is imperative to gain greater insight into Chinese arms export policies, players, and processes and their implications for U.S. interests. This study tackles these issues in two principal parts. First, in order to set the context of the study, we assess past, present, and future quantitative and qualitative trends in Chinese conventional arms transfers. The second part of the study examines Chinese arms export policy, players, and process in turn. Charts and documents attached as appendices further supplement the work of the study.

Chinese Arms Exports: Policy, Players, and Process

Bates Gill

Evan S. Medeiros

Strategic Studies Institute (US Army War College)

China's emergence as a major international power is perhaps the most important development in world affairs of the 21st century. Now, this book provides an indispensable survey of that country, the world's largest-- a vast land with 1.4 billion people and the world's most dynamic economy.
Over the past year, Dr. Bates Gill, C. Fred Bergsten, Nicholas R. Lardy, and Derek Mitchell have led four task forces through a rigorous exercise of investigation and intelligence, compiling and analyzing the authoritative data on China's economy, foreign and domestic policy, and national security. Now that material has been shaped into an accessible narrative filled with facts, but written for the general reader. The expert judgements presented in China: The Balance Sheet will inform policymakers in Washintgon, scholars and the business community for years to come.

China: The Balance Sheet: What the World Needs to Know Now About the Emerging Superpower

Business & Money

Nicholas R. Lardy

Derek Mitchell

C.Fred Bergsten

Economics

PublicAffairs

For centuries, China has proven difficult for Americans to understand. Today, however, China is becoming one of the most powerful countries in the world. As the 21st century unfurls, the stakes have never been higher for getting US policy toward China right. The direction that China and US-China relations take will define the strategic future of the world for years to come. No relationship matters more―for better or for worse―in resolving the enduring challenges of our time: maintaining stability among great powers, sustaining global economic growth, stemming dangerous weapons proliferation, countering terrorism, and confronting new transnational threats of infectious disease, environmental degradation, international crime, and failing states. And for the United States in particular, a rising China has an increasingly important impact on American prosperity and security, calling for some clear-eyed thinking and tough economic, political, and security choices. Put simply, the US-China relationship is too big to disregard and too critical to misread. This book is a joint project between the Institute for International Economics and the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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Books by Bates Gill